Guinness PRO12 2016/17: Final Prediction

Munster

The Aviva Stadium plays host to this year’s Pro12 final, which certainly hands Munster some element of home advantage.

Munster finished top of the pile in the regular season losing just three games, whilst the Scarlets finished third. There is little to separate the teams in terms of their head to head games this season; in the two meetings, they are one victory a piece, with both sides winning away from home. The Irish province have won the competition three times and been runners-up on three occasions also, whilst the Scarlets have as solitary competition win from 2003-04.

Munster
It has been quite a season for Munster after a couple of years in the relative wilderness. The tragic passing of Axel Foley seemed to galvanise a team who were already showing signs that they may be force again. In Europe they were outstanding until they came up against a Saracens side, who let’s face it, there is no shame in losing to. They have occupied the top two or three positions in the Pro12 all season and when they secured a home semi-final against Ospreys, a place in the final looked inevitable.

Scarlets
Scarlets started their season slowly; losing their first three games. However, since then, they have been one of the most consistent sides in the league and their recent form has been outstanding, having won six on the bounce. Much has been made of the Scarlets attack and their ability to strike from anywhere, but it was their dogged determination and incredible work rate which brought about a stunning 27-15 win in Leinster last weekend.

Head to Head: Peter O’Mahony vs James Davies
Rarely will you see two more physicality abrasive players going head to head. They are though, two very different players occupying the same position. Whilst both are incredibly dynamic in the tackle area over the ball, O’Mahony offers a great line-out option and epitomises the way Munster play; aggressive, yet controlled. Compare this to Davies who is more prominent with ball in hand, and like the Scarlets team is more unpredictable and operates at pace.

Prediction
At the time of writing, most bookies have Munster to win by eight points, and this feels about right. Their relative experience as a club at the sharp end of the season can only help and they will be able to draw on a sizeable and vocal support from the stands. Their pack will look to dominate up front and there is certainly no lack of grunt in the front five where they should have the edge. The assured half-back partnership of Conor Murray and Tyler Bleyendaal will look to control the game; expect lots of box kicking as Munster prioritise field position over running from deep.
On the other hand, Scarlets will want the game to be looser. Their back-row of Aaron Shingler, James Davies and John Barclay is going to be a real handful, and if they can turnover quick ball, then expect to see a talented back-line give it a go from anywhere. In Scott Williams, Jonathan Davies and Liam Williams they have experience and quality a plenty to match the Munster backs.

The back-row battle will influence the outcome, as will the amount of time and space each set of half-backs has to play. In this respect, it looks like Munster might hold an advantage. If they can control the pace of the game and keep the scoreboard ticking over as they have done for most of the season, then they should cross the finish line ahead on Saturday evening. Munster by 6.

By Keith Mackenzie
Follow Keith on Twitter: @Keith_Mack7

3 thoughts on “Guinness PRO12 2016/17: Final Prediction

  1. Wrong, but folks let’s face it, it’s a fair reflection of what a lot of people were expecting.
    Scarlets were outstanding, though; no fluke this, they overwhelmed Leinster in the semi too. These are two very significant wins for Welsh rugby; we’ve waited a long time for one of the regions to play with such a great mixture of strength and flair.

Leave a Reply