With an 87% hit rate over the first four rounds, we head in to Round 5 of the Pro12. Which predictions do you agree or disagree with this week?
Connacht vs Edinburgh
Two sides which have started very poorly; the defending champions have yet to win a game and have looked somewhat shell-shocked so far. Edinburgh on the other hand have been disappointingly predictable in terms of their performances and results – so much so that Head Coach Alan Solomons stepped down from his position on Wednesday.
Everything tells me that Connacht will finally kick start their season on Friday night by beating a team that never seem to travel well and have now only won one game on the road since January. Connacht by 10.
Newport Gwent Dragons vs Glasgow Warriors
The Dragons will be hurting from their defeat away to Treviso last week, whilst the battered and bruised Warriors will be desperately counting their fit players ahead of the journey to South Wales. In normal circumstances there would be little hesitation in predicting an away win, however Glasgow do have some serious injury concerns and will be missing a hat-load of forwards in particular. If the Dragons can exploit this frailty in the pack (and it’s a big “if”), then this could present the shock result of the round. Rather than playing it safe, I’m going out on a very big limb here…. Newport Gwent Dragons by 5.
Munster vs Zebre
This should be the easiest of the week’s games to predict. Munster have shown that they will be much more competitive this season and have the look of a team that could well be top four. Zebre have tightened up defensively after the mauling at the hands of the Ospreys in Round 1, and of course they ran the Cardiff Blues mighty close in Italy last week. However at Thomond Park, I would give them next to no chance of causing an upset. A comfortable bonus point win for Munster. Munster by 26.
Ulster vs Ospreys
After an impressive start to the season, the Ospreys came off the rails in Dublin last week; they now face another very difficult away trip. Ulster have a 100% record to date and really stepped up to the mark physically at Scotstoun last week where their performance was more dominant than the 22-17 score-line suggests. I would imagine that the visitors will have learned something about starting the game more strongly after finding themselves 31-0 down after only 47 minutes, so expect them to be closer on the scoreboard for most of the game.
These sides have been closely matched through the years with both having 13 wins apiece against each other in the Pro12. With home advantage and a slightly more physical pack, I’m taking Ulster to shade this one. Ulster by 7.
Cardiff Blues vs Leinster
Potentially the game of the round at Cardiff Arms Park, where the unbeaten Blues welcome a strong Leinster side. I suspect Cardiff will be glad to get back on home soil after an uncomfortable trip to Zebre where they squeezed passed the Italians by just two points. Last season though, these were the games the Blues would have lost; there is little doubt they are a massively improved outfit.
It’s a tight one to call, but Leinster’s streetwise backrow and a certain Johnny Sexton re-finding form, might be the difference between the two sides. Leinster by 3.
Benetton Treviso vs Scarlets
The Scarlets will have been mighty relieved to record their first Pro12 win against Connacht last week. There is something not quite clicking with them yet, but if they do eventually get it right, the Scarlets have the potential to be as good as any other Pro12 team. Connoisseurs of the Pro12 will know that an away trip to Treviso is not as comfortable as it looks; the homes side dispatched the Dragons with ease and ran Ulster pretty close. The challenge will be for the visitors to get some parity up front, if they can do that then I would take them to record their second win of the season and their seventh straight victory over Treviso. Scarlets by 7.
By Keith Mackenzie
Follow Keith on Twitter: @Keith_Mack7
I agree that Connacht will get passed Edinburgh, but it will be tight,
Judging by the way Glasgow beat Connacht in round 1 and the way Dragons squeaked passed Zebre 11-6 at home I do fancy a Glasgow win.
Munster will win convincingly if weather permits them to keep ball in hand
Good comeback by the Ospreys in Leinster, but still came up short, but a good win on the road for Ulster (as Cathal will tell you) Ospreys with a loosing bonus point
Good win for Leinster last week, rather lame from Cardiff
I’m going against the bookies and backing Treviso in the last game
Connacht by 5
Glasgow by 11
Munster by 25 plus
Ulster by 6
Leinster by 4
Treviso by 5
Predictions
Edinburgh by 4 ( Hope I’m wrong as an Irish supporter but I dont think theres light at the end of the tunnel yet, Connacht should win really but my gut just tells me Edinburgh by snatch it despite how awful they are.)
Glasgow by 10
Munster by 20 ( Munster have fielded a more youthful side with an eye being kept on next weeks Derby v Leinster, the champions cup and another difficult derby in Belfast. Because of this I expect this to be less one sided than it should but Munster should still get the BP win.)
Ulster by 7 ( I expect a reaction from Osperys but at home,the form there in, and the line ups you have to go with Ulster. I expect Osperys to get a LBP though.)
Cardiff by 8 ( Again as an Irish fan hope I’m wrong but like Munster Leinster are keeping there eye on there next 3 games and have therefore fielded a more youthful team. If Leinster win it will be a great result)
Treviso by 6 ( Scarlets are rubbish, they really shouldnt be with that line up but they are and Treviso have been in good form.)
These predictions must be done by an Edinburgh fan because Glasgow always have unfair and ludicrous predictions made against them in my opinion.
I rest my case.
Clearly people are picking Nel to be a Lion just as a token Scot, looked on par with a young tight head making his first appearance for Connacht.