We are now at the midway point of the Lions tour – four games down, two losses and two wins. Everyone has had a chance to stake their claim, and while the test team won’t be set in stone just yet, you can expect Gatland to begin to separate the players into midweek and test squads as he manages their game time.
I have been picking a Lions team for the Rugby Blog throughout the year. It is fair to say it has evolved quite a lot – here’s how it stood in March following the Six Nations:
1 Mako Vunipola, 2 Ken Owens, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 4 Maro Itoje, 5 Joe Launchbury, 6 CJ Stander, 7 Sam Warburton, 8 Billy Vunipola, 9 Conor Murray, 10 Johnny Sexton, 12 Owen Farrell (capt), 13 Jonathan Joseph, 11 George North, 14 Elliot Daly, 15 Stuart Hogg
16 Jamie George, 17 Jack McGrath, 18 Dan Cole, 19 Courtney Lawes, 20 Sean O’Brien, 21 Rhys Webb, 22 Robbie Henshaw, 23 Liam Williams.
Well Launchbury didn’t even make the tour, and a couple of guys (Billy Vunipola and Stuart Hogg) have been ruled out because of injury, while form has affected the selection anyway.
Here’s my new squad for the first test on June 24th.
Front row
1 Mako Vunipola, 2 Ken Owens, 3 Kyle Sinckler
Sinckler is the biggest bolter in my side – but he has been brilliant so far for the Lions when given a chance. He is such a powerful ball carrier, and alongside Mako on the loosehead, this is one area the Lions could get an edge on the All Blacks. He has also allayed my fears about his scrummaging (Mako less so, but McGrath is on the bench in case), the only worry is his occasional rash moments.
Owens looks the form hooker: the most reliable thrower and most solid in the scrum so keeps the number two shirt.
Second row
4 George Kruis, 5 Courtney Lawes
We know how vital the lineout is and the Lions have shown it can be the trickier of the set pieces to get right when you have a group of players thrown together. For that reason, Kruis has to be in the side, not least as he just got the better of the All Blacks lineout guru Sam Whitelock in the Crusaders game.
Who partners him is trickier. Maro Itoje is an unbelievable player and had been a consistent every time I picked a Lions team, while I think Gatland will opt for Alun Wyn Jones’ experience, but Lawes has been in excellent form recently and during his (limited) time on the pitch for the Lions. His huge tackling adds something extra and should he recover from his concussion, he would be my pick. Still one of the tightest selections.
Back row
6 Peter O’Mahony, 7 Sam Warburton (capt), 8 Taulupe Faletau
Warburton has struggled so far, including in the first half against the Highlanders. But he has had little game time and did improve as the match wore on – hopefully he is finally regaining full fitness. Sean O’Brien and Justin Tipuric haven’t quite done enough to convince me to ditch the tour captain yet… but I know it is a risky pick to hope he finds his best form in time.
O’Mahony is there because the pack is full of powerful ball carriers and it needs a work-horse, much like the role Robshaw does for England. O’Mahony is that player; tackling hard and aggressive at the breakdown. Plus he is brilliant in the lineout. At eight, and with Billy Vunipola out, Faletau is an easy pick – he is one of the most important players to the Lions now.
Half backs and centres
9 Conor Murray, 10 Owen Farrell, 12 Ben Te’o, 13 Jonathan Joseph
Murray walks into this side right now; his box kicking is head and shoulders above the rest and that is vital to starve the All Blacks of easy counter attacking ball. I had Sexton as 10 last time, with Farrell outside him. But Sexton still looks a bit out of form, while Farrell is playing the best rugby of his life – he moves over to flyhalf.
The centres are one of the hardest selections – no one has really nailed down these sports yet. Te’o has looked solid in defence and picked some nice lines, so he gets in over Henshaw (who has been surprisingly anonymous so far). Plus the England connection should help the backline gel quickly.
The 13 shirt is a similar conundrum. I thought Davies might be the player given his end of season form for the Scarlets, but he was forced off early against the Crusaders and has yet to really push his case. Joseph however, finally showed some of his quick feet against the Highlanders – he can be the razor to Te’o’s blunt force, and keeps his place in my team. Expect Gatland to pick Davies though.
Back three
11 George North, 14 Anthony Watson, 15 Elliot Daly
Last time regarding the fullback selection I wrote ‘Hogg starts at 15. No debate there. Next.’ Well time (or rather Conor Murray’s elbow) makes fools of us all. Halfpenny is the other listed fullback option, but there are plenty of versatile backs who have experience there – Nowell, Payne, Watson, Williams and Daly all often wear the 15 jersey. I have gone for Daly. He is a classy footballer, has pace and an eye for a gap, plus great defence and excellent positioning. Alongside that, his huge boot could just make a difference in a tight game – as it almost did against the Highlanders.
Watson excited in his cameo at fullback the other day, but I think his finishing is better and more useful on the wing. A lot of the wingers seem a bit out of sorts at the moment, Williams and Nowell especially. This means North, another still yet to really show his best on the tour, keeps his pace on the other side. We know just how good he can be. Let’s hope he shows the rest of New Zealand.
Bench
16 Jamie George, 17 Jack McGrath, 18 Tadhg Furlong, 19 Maro Itoje, 20 CJ Stander, 21 Rhys Webb, 22 Johnny Sexton, 23 Liam Williams
The bench offers the safer scrummaging Irish props, without losing much ball carrying ability. Combined with George, there will be no let up for the New Zealand front row.
Itoje slips from a starting spot to the bench, but would be a brilliant option to bring on, whether at lock or blindside. Stander is the last forward replacement as you need eight cover – he has looked a little tired (understandable, he has played a huge number of minutes), but would still be a fearsome prospect to let loose against battered opposition.
Webb is the replacement nine. His spikiness and running ability, alongside Sexton’s attacking brain, will be the option should the Lions be chasing a close score. Meanwhile Williams takes the final spot on the bench, more for his versatility than his form. The team needs back three cover and none of the options have quite found their mojo yet – this is actually the selection is struggled with the most. Williams worried the All Blacks last year though, and that’s enough for me to back him over the rest.
So a huge nine English players starting, with four Welsh and two Irish.
Who would you pick?
By Henry Ker
For me:
Vunipola/George/Furlong
Kruis/Itoje
Stander/O’Brein/Faletau
Murray/Farrell (capt)
Te’o/Joseph
North/Williams/Watson
Bench:
McGrath/Owens/Sinckler
Lawes/Warburton
Webb/Sexton/Daly
Would not have L Williams anywhere near the pitch, more likely to lose you the match than win it.
For me:
Vunipola/George/Furlong – Furlong just. George for me has been the best hooker so far
Lawes / Kruis – Lawes is threatening to live up to his undoubted potential
POM/SOB/Faletau – SOB looked good against the Crusaders
Murray /Farrell – still think Sexton Farrell may work but it is risky
Te’o / Dunno – Davies and Joseph have not proved themselves. Could be an idea to play Daly here as looks dangerous and it’s his best and normal position
North / Watson / Williams – hoping Williams will show the same form against the ABs as he did last year + FB is his best spot
Bench:
Marler / Owens / Sinckler – McGrath’s srummaging was a worry vs highlanders whereas Marler went well.
Itoje / Stander – covers lock, 6 and 8
Webb / Sexton
Daly – covers all back three plus centre
I agree with most of this. I’d have Itoje starting with Lawes on the bench, just purely because of the Saracens connection. Wouldn’t be unhappy with Lawes starting though.
I’d like to see a back row of SOB/Tipuric/Faletau given a run. Think Tipuric offers a bit more in the loose, but again no great issue with O’mahony.
Would like to see Daly given a start at 13. Its useful having a left footed kicking option, particularly if the plan is to try and pin NZ back in their own half. Also adds a bit of pace to the back line, as 9,10,12 aren’t renowned for their speed!
I think we’ve seen that suffocating and squeezing the Kiwi style of rugby (Crusaders) is an effective if not particularly exciting way of winning in NZ so I feel Furlong swapped for Sinkler will ensure the tourists get the edge at the scrum. Then if that’s not working you can bring on Sinkler’s fresh and surprisingly fast legs to open the game up more.
Other than that I can’t see any other changes I’d make other than perhaps Jared Payne on the bench in place of Williams; I know he’s not put his hand up as much as people thought he might but he is a cooler head when the clock ticks down.
Henry, how about your thoughts on the tactics you think might work, not just the players? We know just mouthing Warrenball turns Gatland redder than that Welsh dragon he’s definitely got tattooed on his arse, but I wonder if he really does have a plan B.
Hi D,
I was convinced that England’s style of play, with two playmakers at 10 and 12 was the way to go. However, with Sexton a way off his best I have changed my mind – in hindsight, that gameplan has taken a long time to bed in and is also really reliant on the relationship between Ford and Farrell. There just hasn’t been the time for Sexton and Farrell to build it.
I think a mix of Ireland’s gameplan against NZ in the US and the tactics against the Crusaders is the way to go. Saracens style is probably the best comparison. Really aggressive line speed in defence then be patient and clinical attack on the few opportunities you get.
That line speed is the foundation – they need to smash the All Blacks and suffocate them, one of the reasons I have picked Lawes and O’Mahony. And discipline is essential – we saw against the Blues and Highlanders if you concede upwards of 10 penalties you do not have a hope. They need to keep it to around the 6/7 mark max.
The forwards need to be really aggressive in their carrying – why Billy Vunipola is such a big loss. But if you get guys like Mako, Sinckler, Furlong, Faletau, Kruis and Lawes carrying hard and putting them on the back foot then space will open up. Given the forward quality on the bench, they can run themselves into the ground. The set piece is one of the few areas they can conceivably hope to win as well and will be their opportunity to attack.
Conor Murray is probably the single most important player for me as his box kicking is pinpoint (also why I had an inkling Wigglesworth may have gotten a surprise call when Youngs was ruled out). Him and Farrell cannot give any loose ball to NZ or they will be punished.
So not warrenball (although I think Gatland gets an unfairly hard time about that), more suffocate and strike. It won’t necessarily be pretty, but it could be effective.
Not just the carrying though. Speed to rucks and winning them once there will be crucial
It was noticeable that against the Crusaders the Lions were getting to rucks immediately and effectively clearing the oppo out. Not so against the Blues or the Highlanders and a number of turnovers and penalties were given away due to the lack of support or effective clearing at ruck time.
Which is yet another reason to play Vunipola, George, Kruis, SOB and POM – all are very effective at ruck time
Very true – one of the reasons I was disappointed with Haskell against the Highlanders. That is what he is supposed to be best at!
I expect Warburton to get some more game time against the Maori. O’Brien comes in if he still is off the pace.
Yes, I think he has to play Warburton vs the Maori. Hopefully he’ll have a blinder
J Davies also needs to get a full game and I’d like to see Daly given a chance at 13 or 15
I’m currently torn between 2, both changes in the backline:
1 Vunipola
2 George
3 Furlong
4 Kruis
5 Lawes
6 O’Mahoney (c)
7 O’Brien
8 Faletau
9 Murray
10 Farrell (vc) /Sexton
11 Watson
12 Teo / Farrell (vc)
13 Henshaw / Teo
14 North
15 Williams
16 Owens
17 Sinckler
18 McGrath
19 Itoje
20 Stander
21 Webb
22 Sexton/Henshaw
23 Daly
I’m not sure why Sinckler got your nod over Furlong, he was immense in his game and also offers something in the loose that I feel people overlook, and I think Owens might feel aggrieved but George has done just enough. Kruis was always penned in imo, and Lawes in in the best form so Itoje is unlucky to miss out. The backrow has the best balance of the ones played so far, and I’d prefer not to start Warburton because even with 80 vs the Mario I don’t think he’ll have had enough game time.
I did think Sexton/Farrell is our best bet, but Teo has played very well and Henshaw has a good pass and boot outside him. Plus, I always felt that JJ has flattered to deceive, and saves his best games for weaker or less defensive opposition. Daly offers versatility from the bench so gets my nod.
The Sinckler/Furlong decision was not more to do with just how much I have been impressed with Sinckler, rather than anything negative towards Furlong, who I agree has been great!
Would definitely start Furlong ahead of Sinckler. Not because of any relative ranking of them, just because of the game-balance and that KS would add extra energy when he comes on.
Unlikely as it is to happen, following on from his display yesterday I wouldn’t be at all disappointed to see a 10/12 of Biggar/Farrell.
(and I have never been a fan of Biggar!)
Realistically, I would go for Te’o at 12 and see how Davies goes on Saturday (hopefully) before choosing between him and Joseph at 13.
Back 3 is tough. North must be a shoo-in on one side, and Daly seems to have made less errors than anyone else.
I worry about Watson’s defence more than Nowell’s. Williams seems to be all over the place, Seymour may not be completely out of it (i’m sure he won’t get stepped again!).
Hate to say it (as he adds very little in attack) but perhaps the 15 is Halfpenny.
Why is North a shoo-in? He has had one game where he was competent in defence but did nothing in attack, following an indifferent season for Saints. I think he has big question marks against his name.Halfpenny is simply not quick enough at this level. Neither, I suspect, is Nowell.
If Hogg hadn’t gone home, North wouldn’t be in my 23. I don’t see what the big deal is, he hasn’t been at his best for a while, and that’s not the type of winger they’ll fear.
For me, North played very well at the end of the 6 Nations (after an indifferent/poor start). Also, with no-one else beating the door down to take his place, the mix of his most recent Wales form plus his potential makes him the shoo-in.
Unless of course he has a bad outing on Saturday.
Agreed that Biggar looked almost decent yesterday. I was surprised
Re back 3. I don’t think Ha’Penny adds much in defence either. He looked very slow trying to cover across for Ioane’s try and whilst brave he has a tendency to tackle with his head on the wrong side.
North is the choice simply because he hasn’t put a foot wrong yet. Watson for the other wing as he is the only one who has really looked capable of causing damage. Williams for fullback with my fingers crossed he finds his form. Daly on the bench for utility and impact
I would start with the solid and powerful Mcgrath and Furlong and bring on Mako and Sinkler to exploit some gaps as tired legs cause the game to open up a bit Owens starts and George on the Bench for the same reason.
Kruis and Itoje to start and Lawes to come on and terrorise the backline late on.
Agree with Hutch on the backrow provided Warbs proves himself in the next game
Scrum half it is the only obvious choice
Flyhalf has to be Farrell with Sexton on the bench and an option to go 10 12 late on if chasing the game
Agree with Teo and Joseph in the centres
In the back three i would probably swap Daly to the wing and give Watson the 15 shirt with williams on the bench
McGrath didn’t look anything like as solid as Marler on Tuesday Leon.
Henry – my brother from another mother.
At last someone who shares my opinion (you’re clearly mental!).
Same XV as me with the exception of Furlong/Sinkler and Warburton for Sean O’Brian. I think Sinklers been great, despite him walking around the pitch like a ‘mockney’ widebody, I just reckon that he and Mako are too similar in terms of great work rate and popping up all over the pitch so someone to do the to carries and donkey work is needed for the first half.
Whats a “mockney widebody”?
I meant the tight carries within 5 of the breakdown
Vunipola
Owens
Sinkler
Awj (vc)
Kruis
Stander
Tupric, although the bread man will get picked.
Faletau
Murray
Farrell(c)
Watson
Te’o
JJ
Daly
Halfpenny. Expecting him to pull his head out of his arse now he’s unemployed.