Before the Six Nations, we suggested that Ireland and England would provide the bulk of the Lions tourists, and that the Scotland v Wales game would be a key match as some of the other candidates went head to head for places on the plane.
We’ve picked out some key positions, with the help of Accenture’s statistics.
Second Row
We highlighted after Round 2 that Alun Wyn Jones was outplayed by Courtney Lawes and Joe Launchbury, according to the stats, and here he is up against the Gray brothers.

Jones remains the bookies’ favourite to be named Lions captain, but the last couple of rounds have shown that he might be behind Launchbury, Lawes, R Gray and J Gray, before we even consider Maro Itoje, and the current Irish pair of Devin Toner and Donncha Ryan.
Two carries for Jones, compared to 15 for Jonny Gray, tells a story in terms of contribution in the loose, whilst there’s not much between the players in terms of tackles made.
Does the Welshman even merit a place on the plane, let alone as the first name on the Test team sheet?
Centre
We should consider the centres by position here, with Scott Williams and Alex Dunbar playing 12 and Jonathan Davies and Huw Jones playing 13.

There’s not a lot between them, with the Welsh pair perhaps edging their rivals, but it’s close.
We said before the Six Nations that Robbie Henshaw and Jonathan Joseph were likely tourists, and whilst the former is fairly certain of a place, the latter will be hoping to be reinstated for the final two games ahead of Ben Te’o.
If Owen Farrell provides centre cover, along with Elliot Daly who is making a strong case for a utility back, there aren’t many spots up for grabs in midfield, and it’s all to play for over the final two rounds.
Fly half
If Jonny Sexton and Owen Farrell are almost certain to tour, there’s likely to be one remaining spot for Finn Russell, Dan Biggar or George Ford.

Whilst it’s clear that Russell is carrying the ball more, neither are crossing the gainline much, and at first glance, it doesn’t seem like there is much to choose between the two fly-halves.
Things you can’t tell from a fly-half’s stats include how flat they received the ball, how much they threatened the gainline, how many defenders they fixed before they passed, and so on. However, Russell’s 7 carries to Biggar’s 2 suggests he was much more of an attacking threat, even if he only crossed the gainline once. Fixing defenders before passing should create more space for those outside him, and there’s no question that Scotland’s attack is currently outperforming that of Wales.
Greig Laidlaw’s absence also gave Russell the opportunity to prove his goalkicking reliability, with 5 penalties, 2 conversions and a 100% success rate. With that feather also in his cap, Russell edges this head-to-head, and it will be interesting to see how he fares against George Ford at Twickenham in Round 4.
What do you think of these stats? Does anything stand out in terms of Lions selection?
Thanks to Accenture for the statistics – follow @AccentureRugby or visit accenture-rugby.com
Follow Hutch on Twitter: @Hutch_James
It would be interesting to see the centres analysed in terms of turnovers gained…
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