Without threatening an upset, the USA gave a respectable account of themselves against Samoa. What the result means might be difficult to judge given the latter’s indifferent season, but the Eagles were physically competitive at all times and produced some impressive attacking moments. Many have pointed to Japan’s fatigue as the cause of their second-half collapse against Scotland.
You suspect the Scots couldn’t care less. This was a result beyond their expectations after four days of adverse media coverage, played out before a public baying for another victim to fall to the rampant Cherry Blossom machine. Scotland last played the USA as recently as June 2014, winning 24-6 in an uncomfortable 30 degree heat in Houston. While temperatures in Leeds are unlikely to reach such heights, the USA will prove obdurate opponents, mixing an innate physicality with patches of star quality.
Scotland
Given the four day turn-around, the main question after Kingsholm hung over Vern Cotter’s rotation strategy. There is a serious doubt over whether Scotland can sustain the level of performance required to beat any nation in the world’s top 15 without certain game-breaking individuals, namely Hogg, Bennett, and Russell. Cotter’s selection reflects a conservative approach in this regard.
In essence, the rapiers remain; bludgeons are deemed interchangeable. All of the above backs are retained along with John Hardie, who, as the only genuine open-side in the squad, is considered critical to the desired style of play. All four, you imagine, will be substituted if Scotland pull away. The fact that Hardie starts again after making 21 tackles on Wednesday makes the omission of John Barclay and Blair Cowan in favour of excess 6s/8s appear even more short-sighted.
Richie Vernon will be disappointed not to make the bench at least in what probably represents his best chance of game-time. As a starter at 13 in Glasgow’s title winning run-in, Vernon was a standout performer, and moreover it is imperative that Bennett is fit to start the final two pool games. In the centres, Peter Horne has an opportunity to prove his worth above Matt Scott, and his passing game will provide good ball to a potent back three. The front row is unquestionably the second choice, but at lock Richie Gray and Grant Gilchrist are competing for a single spot against South Africa. The same competition applies on the wing, where Tim Visser and Sean Maitland start ahead of Sean Lamont.
Player to watch
Josh Strauss makes his first start for Scotland. The number 8’s savage ball-carrying has had a noticeable influence on Glasgow’s fortunes in his three seasons at the club, and pending a good contribution on Sunday, you would imagine that Scotland’s first choice backrow against South Africa will feature Hardie, Denton and Strauss.
USA
In their opening loss last weekend the Eagles contributed one of the great tries of the week as Chris Wyles finished a move that started, oddly, with his own charged down kick in the US ‘22. Along with relentlessly optimistic fans, this alone was sufficient to remind everyone of the benefits of the Eagles‘participation in the tournament. What really let them down was a penalty count of 14 against, which not only conceded points but momentum too.
The USA have made only a single change to their starting fifteen, and there is a core of Premiership and Top 14 experience with the Eric Fry at prop, Hayden Smith in the second row, Samu Manoa at No. 8, and Blaine Scully, Takudzwa Ngwenya and Wyles in the back three. Prop Titi Lamositele, another Saracen, may lack experience, having only taken up the game three years ago, but gives nothing away in size. Folau Niua is also a threat with ball in hand off the bench.
The US midfield is more muscular than their opponent’s, and Thretton Palamo managed to put his Samoan opponent Reynold Lee-Lo on the sidelines within 30 seconds of kickoff last week, not necessarily legally. With their pace, the US backs can score from deep, but a lack of true breakdown technicians means that a supply of good ball may be limited.
Player to watch- AJ MacGinty
Fly-half AJ MacGinty was born in Dublin and attended Blackrock College, the same institution which produced Brian O’Driscoll, Luke Fitzgerald and Ian Madigan among many others. MacGinty was tidy in the match against Samoa, instrumental in Wyles’ try, and highly regarded on the basis of his performances thus far in 2015.
Prediction
Vern Cotter’s conservative selection should bring a Scotland victory provided the unrested players are in a state to perform. There is little doubt that the USA are difficult to break down, and will cause them some uncomfortable moments. The threat of Samu Manoa as a ball-carrier is enough to worry the Scottish defence, particularly in view of the manner in which Amanaki Mafi roamed freely around Kingsholm. However, provided a platform is set up front, an in-form Scottish back-line should have enough penetration to bring a second pool-stage win. Scotland by 13.
By Charlie King (@CharlescpKing)
Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images
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