The last time Scotland met the French in Paris they did so off the back of an impressive Autumn Series, and narrowly lost 12-8 in a laudable but now very familiar failure. The circumstances are equally auspicious this time around, but the French team they will face is in far better form than in February and as 15 individuals, absolutely stellar.
Scotland
Three interception tries added gloss to a Scotland performance last weekend which was competent without having the sort of magic that a 48 point win suggests. Indeed, the first twenty minutes featured several disappointing moments and some ill-conceived, poorly-executed kicking from the half-backs. However, what brought most relief was the confident defence of the Italians’ driving maul by what was very close to Scotland’s first choice pack. The same sort of resistance will be required on Saturday against a French team who bullied England both home and away.
The team selection is a useful dress-rehearsal should one of Scotland’s two worst World Cup nightmares materialise and Stuart Hogg fall to injury. The other would be the loss of Finn Russell, who starts for the second week running at 10. With Hogg the only specialist fullback in the squad, Sean Maitland has an opportunity to display his versatility and also provide the counter-attacking which might well see him selected ahead of Tim Visser on the wing for subsequent fixtures. The latter has another opportunity to build on a display at Murrayfield which suggested he was returning to the kind of form which characterised his first three years at Edinburgh.
In the forwards, this is essentially Scotland’s starting pack with the possible exceptions of the replacement of Richie Gray with Grant Gilchrist and Josh Strauss with Ryan Wilson. The choice of John Hardie gives him an opportunity to vindicate Vern Cotter’s controversial non-selection of John Barclay. Hardie was seriously impressive away against Italy and has held down a place in a championship-winning Super Rugby side. His credentials really shouldn’t be in question. What deserves greater scrutiny as the tournament progresses is the selection ahead of Barclay of Alasdair Strokosch – currently of the French ProD2 – and Tim Swinson – only recently fit and, as he has freely admitted, astonished to make the squad. Both feature on the bench this weekend.
Key player
The selection of greatest significance in defining Scotland’s best XV is at inside centre, where Matt Scott has a final chance to assert his credentials ahead of Peter Horne, who has been impressive so far. Scott is perhaps slightly more physical, but is still an x-factor line-breaker by virtue of his quick feet rather than his bulk. Horne, in comparison, plays more in the role of the busy second fly-half and has the better distribution. Scott also needs to show that he can secure the 12 channel defensively, having been at fault for tries by Jonathan Davies and Jonathan Joseph in the Six Nations.
France
France are mostly unchanged after their comprehensive defeat of England. Thierry Dusautoir returns from injury to lead as captain and Alexandre Flanquart replaces first choice second row Yoann Maestri. Dusautoir faces the task of avoiding the sort of fractiousness which both divided and then galvanised his side in 2011, although the camp seems relatively happy so far. Fluidity comes from the selection of both Toulon half-backs, and outside Yoann Huget is finally gaining wider recognition for the depth of his talent and class, not always apparent from his performances in a French jersey.
Scott Spedding also looks in far better shape than in the Six Nations, and his kick-return displays real menace. It seems apparent that the French players are capable of so much more when they are not conditioned for or wearied by the limited but intense demands of the Top 14. France also have more to come off the bench than Scotland, with Vincent Debaty a powerful scrummager, and Bernard Le Roux and Yannick Nyanga excellent at the breakdown. The French open their World Cup campaign against Italy, a side to whom they have lost twice in the last five years, and anything but an assured victory would halt their accrued momentum.
Key player
As Freddie Michalak skewed kick after kick wide in France’s 2003 World Cup semi-final, it seemed highly unlikely that he would not only be the incumbent 10 a full 12 years later, but also his country’s leading test match points scorer. It is testament to his enduring ability – as well as the curiously affectionate regard in which Philippe Saint-André holds him – that he is a good bet to occupy the jersey for the 2015 tournament.
Michalak’s 17 points helped France to victory against England and Saint-André has admitted that it was his goal-kicking which saw him selected ahead of Francios Trinh-Duc, who would walk into a good many of the World Cup squads. This said, Michalak was rattled during the corresponding fixture in the Six Nations and even lashed out at Stuart Hogg. Perhaps the Scots know how to get at him. He will also need to prove that he can cope in defence with the reinvigorated ball-carrying of David Denton, who will surely target the 10 channel.
Prediction
A Scotland team without Hogg may just lack the cutting edge required to threaten the French. So much of Scotland’s attacking play- both preplanned and spontaneous- comes from Hogg, and while Sean Maitland is a well-rounded replacement, his counter-attacking is not in the same league. The real benefit of this fixture is a proper work out for the forwards, where their opponents have thus far been excellent. France will hope to achieve the same attacking fluidity and pressure at the breakdown which so embarrassed England, and should have enough in both the backs and forwards to get a result. France by 10.
By Charlie King (@CharlescpKing)
Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images
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