Six Nations 2015: France vs Wales Prediction

France and Wales. Arguably the two greatest rugby poets, traditionally, in the Championship, and yet both seem to currently be suffering from a form of on-pitch writers’ block. The French decline from the free-flowing majesty of the glory years has been broadcast for all to see, with head coach Philippe Saint-André (himself a wizard of yesteryear) driving the side to new levels of mediocrity and predictability with bizarre selections and a gameplan as fluid as my home-made custard. But, as always, the French have an unfathomable wealth of creative talent waiting to be unleashed, and after one win, one loss and just one try from their two games, the Parisian faithful will be expecting to see something far more adventurous from Les Bleus.

For Wales, the art of the side-stepping miniature Welsh wing wizard seems a distant memory, with their place on the flanks taken up by behemoths even by today’s standard – but that is what Warrenball is all about and, in its own way, it is no less spectacular to watch. Gatland was criticised for not installing a Plan B when his side were outplayed by England at Cardiff, but the truth was that they simply didn’t execute Plan A. Against Scotland, there were signs of the Welsh power game surging irresistibly back into life, with Jamie Roberts crashing forward at every opportunity and Liam Williams exuding menace. There won’t be surprises from this Welsh side – but that doesn’t mean they can be stopped when they get going.

France

Philippe Saint-Andre makes five changes to the side which lost to Ireland in Dublin, with three of them enforced. Of the two tactical changes, one seems to make sense but the other is predictably puzzling – this is a Saint-André selection after all. Brice Dulin, who lit up an under-achieving French backline last year, comes in for Scott Spedding with the South African-born full back probably paying the price for looking a bit too contact-hungry and not making the most of space on the counter attack.

Slightly more surprising is the decision to drop Mathieu Bastareaud – yes, you know what you are going to get with him, but it’s a whole different question stopping him (just ask Johnny Sexton’s cheek). He’s replaced in the centres by last season’s Top 14 ‘Revelation of the Season’, Remy Lamerat. The Castres man is still a strong runner and offers greater dexterity and creativity than Bastareaud, but the Toulon bulldozer wasn’t exactly being used to his strengths, often being asked to make ground from a standing start. The problem wasn’t with Bastereaud, it was with the system.

The other changes see the foolish Pascal Pape replaced by the gargantuan Remi Taofifenua following the former’s 10 week ban, whilst at the other end of the size spectrum, Morgan Parra comes in for the injured Rory Kockott – who was under pressure for his spot in any event. The unfortunate Teddy Thomas – outrageously talented but a spectator for much of the tournament so far – is sidelined as well, so his spot is taken by the fleet-footed Sofian Guitone.

Wales

Warren Gatland also rings the changes for Wales, making four amendments to his starting line-up. The headlines will inevitably go to George North, who makes a return to the side following his well-documented double-concussion against England three weeks ago, but it is Alex Cuthbert, dropped completely, who makes bigger news. The big winger pays the price for some ineffectual displays, in stark comparison to the retained Liam Williams, who has looked busy and energetic throughout. Tighthead prop Samson Lee has also recovered from a bang on the bonce to take the three shirt from Aaron Jarvis.

The other two tactical changes see the glorious locks of Richard Hibbard relegated to the sidelines, with his spot being taken by the dynamic Scott Baldwin – perhaps not altogether surprising after the recent lineout wobbles and lack of return on the carry. It’s a similar story at lock, where big Luke Charteris steps in for Jake Ball and his magnificent beard, perhaps the logic being that Charteris, as the better lineout option, will be able to target a French set piece that is potentially vulnerable following the loss of Pape. Ball actually misses out completely, with Bradley Davies returning to the match day squad in his place.

All eyes on

Rory Kockott came in for a fair amount of criticism for, at times, seeming like the world’s first ‘crash-ball’ scrum half (imagine a half-back pairing of him and Kelly Haimona…). Service to the backs was often laboured and too often the option to attack the fringes, and run into trouble, was taken. You don’t get those issues with Morgan Parra. The Clermont 9 is still hugely popular with the French faithful, even if that view is not always shared by Saint André, and he offers smooth service and an intelligent kicking game – if Les Bleus’ backline cannot start to fire with Parra dishing the ball out to them on a plate, then they really do have issues. He may not provide the running threat of Kockott but what the French desperately need is fluency and intelligence – and Parra gives them that.

For Wales, it’s not often that a player admits that they’re going to be a marked man but, in Rhys Webb’s case, he’s probably right. The Ospreys is rapidly becoming the heartbeat of Wales’ attacking game, sniping around the fringes and bringing in big runners off his shoulder – as well as having apparently eyes in the back of his head, allowing him to spot gaps to exploit himself. He’s a threat in his own right – similar to Phillips in his prime (albeit a slightly different type of threat) – and that can in itself create space for others. The French defence has to be careful – if they don’t watch him, he will make them pay; if they pay too close attention, this Welsh side has the big runners to punish them too. Webb knows that he can turn the game either way on his own.

Prediction

Once again, this French side is proving to be less than the sum of its parts, but the worry is – with such a large amount of changes and what looks to be a fundamentally different game plan – that it all might click. The predictable power game in the backline shown in the likes of Kockett, Bastereau and Spedding has been replaced by a more evasive and kick-friendly set up, and it will be interesting to see how it works. I suspect that it will be much more suited to the way that these French players are used to playing.

Wales haven’t looked overly impressive themselves this Six Nations but we all know that they are notoriously slow starters in this Championship, and the fact remains that this is a side that is littered with world-class experience and combinations that have matched – and occasionally bettered – some of the world’s best on previous occasions. There will be no great change of game-plan – Warrenball will be the order of the day – but it is hard to stop when the machine gets going. Although, with Thierry Dusautoir playing, there is the man to stop it.

I’m going to go for a rejuvenated and energetic French side surprising us, and sneaking a narrow win. France by 3.

By Mike Cooper (@RuckedOver)