Six Nations 2015: Ireland vs England Prediction

The Six Nations appears to have split into three echelons after two rounds – two sides have two wins, two have one, and two have none. Ireland and England sit firmly in the upper echelon, making their game in Dublin the most eagerly anticipated of the tournament to date.

Both sides will step out onto the Aviva Stadium turf on Sunday unbeaten, but the likelihood is only one of them will leave it with that record intact. The winner will be favourites to go on to win the tournament and, quite possibly, a grand slam, while the loser will have suffered a considerable setback.

Tussles between these two in recent times have been devilishly close, a combined total of nine points splitting them in the past two years. Given how well they have both started this championship, it’s unlikely there will be much more between them this weekend.

Ireland

Ireland’s nine game winning run is understandably being heralded, and Joe Schmidt has proved himself once again as the shrewdest of coaches. His side have a ruthless ability to identify and exploit the opposition’s weaknesses, but one thing that will be of worry is their reticence to play a varied attacking game.

Schmidt’s Leinster team became famed for their flowing attacking play, but there has been no real sign of that from Ireland recently. Instead, they have relied on the considerable arsenal of tactical kickers at their disposal, most notably Conor Murray and Johnny Sexton, who are amongst the best in the world.

Up against England, who have scored eight tries in two games, you fancy they might need to expand their game a bit. There is firepower out wide, but we’re yet to really see if Robbie Henshaw and Jared Payne can utilise it properly.

The pack is relatively settled although it is not yet known if Cian Healy will return to the starting line-up. They do not have a monster scrum, but neither it is a weakness, although it will be thoroughly examined by England’s unit, who can lay claim to the title of best in the competition. In Jamie Heaslip’s absence, Sean O’Brien will have to shake off any lingering rustiness to assume greater responsibility, while Peter O’Mahony will hope to dominate the breakdown as he did at times last year.

England

Stuart Lancaster has brought in both Alex Goode and Jack Nowell to the back three, and if the former has come in due to Mike Brown’s injury, there is a sense that it might not be the worst thing in the world. Goode’s greatest strengths lie is his positioning and kick return, while Jack Nowell is also adept at fullback and is thus positionally sound on the wing. Given Ireland’s excellent kicking game, there is a shrewdness to both selections.

Otherwise, it is as you were from the team that hammered Italy at Twickenham. Jonathan Joseph has been the star turn in England’s midfield so far, but Ireland will doubtless have a plan to stop his obvious talents, so watch out for Luther Burrell assuming more attacking responsibility inside him. Ben Youngs and George Ford must ensure their kicking game is up to scratch to go along with their undoubted ability to keep the defence honest with darting breaks, especially given the prowess of their opposite numbers in this area.

The pack, as ever, has been a great strength in the opening two game. England seem to have an ability to produce several waves of forward cover that has long been the envy of other nations, and the performances of the likes of George Kruis and James Haskell – neither of whom have been consistent starters under Lancaster – are further proof of this depth.

All eyes on

It is impossible to escape the fact that Johnny Sexton is the single most crucial man around whom the Joe Schmidt gameplan revolves. He is amongst the best, if not actually able to lay claim to the title of the best, fly-halves in world rugby right now. His tactical kicking is certainly unparalleled, but given England’s selection of intelligent players in the back three, coupled with their high line-out success rate, it will be interesting to see if he mixes his game up a bit more this weekend. Certainly, the central channels looked a bit wobbly defensively in England’s win over Italy, and in Henshaw and Payne he has two centres capable of running intelligent lines that could hurt England.

Given Sexton and Murray’s areas of expertise, Alex Goode‘s inclusion could well be a blessing in disguise for England. While not the quickest, Goode’s strengths – his kicking and positional games – could be ideal for a match that will hinge on who wins the territorial and set piece battles. When England won here two years ago in dire conditions, the Saracens fullback was in sublime form, mopping up flawlessly at the back despite the difficult weather. His ability to come into the line as a secondary distributor should allow the likes of Joseph and Watson to be unleashed to even greater effect, too.

Prediction

There are few easy games to predict in the Six Nations, but this one is truly verging on impossible. Ireland have not beaten England since 2011, but they have a new found steeliness under Schmidt that renders that fact almost irrelevant. England have performed way above expectation so far this Championship, particularly in that win in Cardiff, but they come into this game with hopes of the fans raised – which is much different to their backs-to-the-wall win over Wales. They will need another performance in the mould of that night at the Millennium Stadium, but with an extra 10% on top in all likelihood. They have momentum, though, and as shrewd as Ireland have been so far, if George Ford gets the chance to implement a more expansive gameplan, England could come away with another unlikely away win. England by 2.

By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images