The second warm-up act takes place in Paris, which actually looks fairly tricky to predict. Aside from Italy, there has only been one away win in the Six Nations so far, with England beating Wales in Cardiff, so my starting position is leaning towards France.
But the Welsh performance in victory over Ireland last weekend was fairly impressive, with a huge defensive effort to keep Ireland out, and despite this being a dead rubber in terms of the Six Nations, Wales does still have motivation: if they beat France and England beat Ireland, Wales will jump into fourth place in the World Rugby rankings, giving them top seeding in the Rugby World Cup draw taking place in a few weeks’ time. And they are playing for Lions places, of course.
Was Rob Howley exonerated after his decision to stick with the same lineup that lost to Scotland in Round 3? He’s sticking with them again, and by taking some confidence from their Millennium Stadium win, they will fancy their chances in Paris. Added to that, Wales has won the last five fixtures between the teams.
The other context to the match is the news of the Stade Francais merger with Racing Metro, and the upheaval that will cause to some of the French players. With jobs and livelihoods at risk, there has been talk of strike action, as well as secret player meetings against the wishes of the French management, and this unrest will not help the French mindset.
So with questions over the fragile French mentality, additional motivation for Wales, and the recent record between the two teams, I’m predicting an Away win.
My prediction: Wales by 3
Average Superbru Prediction: France by 0.26
Paddy Power: France by 4
What is your prediction for the match?
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I think you mean “…Italy, there has only been one home loss…”.
Thank you, should be ‘only one away win’ Fixed!
I reckon France will win this with a bonus point. This is going against my general rule of never trying to predict anything involving French rugby, but they are just about starting to gel and my hunch is that with home advantage they’ll win in style.
Look at some of the most influential positions:
Picamoles – arguably the best 8 in Europe after Vunipola.
Serin – French people have been telling me about this youth for a while and I agree with them that he looks the real deal.
Lopez I’m less convinced by, but think he’s improving with each game.
In addition, I can’t see North (& Williams) steamrolling France’s big Fijian wings.
Centres are about at parity in my view.
Front five I reckon France have the edge, particularly with guys like Atonio and Vaahaamahina to come on.
Overall I think France are looking more creative and will score exactly four tries, which will be one or two more than Wales manage.
The problem with this is that the French game plan revolves around their big ball carriers like Picamoles getting over the gainline and then offloading. With the physically abrasive Welsh backrow I don’t see them getting as much gainline success and can see them throwing more and more of those 50:50 offloads and wales capitalising on their mistakes
Yep, a very good point sir. I’m hoping to see the French throw caution to the wind – they don’t have Lions places to inhibit them – and if they put some width on it I reckon they’ll find some holes.
Vakatawa+Nagaitaci+Dulin > North+Williams+Halfpenny
If Wales can manage parity up front and are able to move the French pack around the field, the Welsh fitness will tell.