The Rugby Championship 2015: Round 3 Predictions

sonny bill

AUSTRALIA VS NEW ZEALAND
ANZ Stadium, Sydney
Saturday 8th August, 20.05 local, 11.05 BST

The first instalment of back to back Bledisloe weekends takes on many more mantles than just the Trans-Tasman cup – ostensibly the Rugby Championship decider, but much more importantly a serious test of several first choice combinations for both sides as the Rugby World Cup hurtles into view. Sure, both sides are unbeaten but this is such a watered down version of the Southern Hemisphere’s primary competition that it arguably doesn’t deserve the name. Still, both sides have impressed and it should be an entertaining game.

There are several individual subplots that will catch the eye. The presence of both Michael Hooper and David Pocock in the same Wallaby back-row has long been mooted, and this weekend we will finally find out if it works, the latter shifted to the number eight jumper. Their breakdown work will improve immeasurably but the lineout may suffer, especially with Rob Simmons’ injury – with that in mind non-jumping lock Will Skelton has dropped to the bench with the more lithe duo of James Horwill and Dean Mumm teaming up in the engine room. In the backs Waratahs duo Nick Phipps and Bernard Foley take the half-back berths, inside returning Toulon pair Matt Giteau and Drew Mitchell.

For the All Blacks there is a debutant in the shape of their latest whizzkid on the wing, the tantalisingly-named Nehe Milner-Skudder. Super Rugby fans will attest to how devastating he can be, and if he gets the ball in space he will thrive. A little further infield, Sonny Bill Williams needs a big performance in the injury-enforced absence of Ma’a Nonu and with the excellent Malakai Fekitoa breathing down his neck. Dan Carter returns at stand-off while the pack has an immensely settled feel about it – props Tony Woodcock and Owen Franks will be keen to get stuck into the Wallaby scrum, although the elevation of the more robust Scott Sio to Australia’s starting XV should solidify their set piece.

Australia twice came close to beating the All Blacks on home soil last season, drawing in Sydney and losing by one point in Brisbane. They are an improved outfit a year on, but the fact remains that they haven’t beaten their neighbours in 10 games. A win here would be priceless for their morale heading into the World Cup, and would send serious cold shivers throughout England and Wales. Against the odds, I think they’ll do it.

Prediction: Australia by 2

SOUTH AFRICA VS ARGENTINA
Kings Park, Durban
Saturday 8th August, 17.05 local, 16.05 BST

Two losses in two games for South Africa has left them needing a sizeable win over Argentina to save any face from their Rugby Championship campaign. The irony is that the Springboks have played some lovely rugby at times, with Damien de Allende and Jesse Kriel forming an electric centre partnership. For whatever reason, they haven’t been able to close out both games that they have lead in swathes.

Frustratingly for fans, that centre partnership – their great success story so far – has been disrupted this weekend. But when you consider that it is because the warrior that is Jean de Villiers is making his return after that horrific knee injury, it is understandable. Still, with Kriel shifted out to the wing to accommodate de Villiers, the returning captain will need to shake off the rust quickly and put in a good performance if he is to confirm himself as a starter ahead of the World Cup.

The losses to Australia and New Zealand will have sprinkled the seeds of doubt in the team, and Argentina will aim to take a watering can to them by dragging the Boks into an arm wrestle. Very little of what the Pumas have done so far this championship has been pretty, and while that has largely been their MO over the years, it has been far from effective in the past few weeks. Juan Martin Hernandez has the maverick streak that could be the antidote; he is installed at fly-half in place of the more pragmatic Nicolas Sanchez.

Upfront there is a baptism of fire for Stormers tighthead Vincent Koch, whose first test start comes opposite one of the best loosies in the game, Marcos Ayerza. The grizzled Argentinian knows all the tricks in the book and despite some criticism of the legality of his scrummaging recently, he seems to be getting away with it.

De Villiers is the story, but a poor performance from the Springboks – or even, heaven forbid, a loss – would make fans quickly forget about the return of their talismanic captain, and start worrying about their form so close to the World Cup. More likely, though, is that they’ll continue in their impressive vein and put a stuttering Pumas outfit comfortably to bed.

Prediction: South Africa by 20

How do you see the weekend playing out?

By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images

2 thoughts on “The Rugby Championship 2015: Round 3 Predictions

  1. Spot on Jamie, but from a superstitious point of view I’d like the Kiwis to clinch the Championship, then they’ll probably not win the World Cup. And I want them to become a bit complacent with their success. There’s nothing like a loss to really light the fire under them and if that happens, I fear they’ll be unstoppable.

  2. Watching the first game. A bit scrappy so far. Wallabies look too error prone to win this though

    Barnes is letting Noth teams get away with murder on the offside line. The ABs are taking advantage more though – at almost every ruck there are 2 or 3 ABs a yard or two offside

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