Autumn Internationals 2014: Ireland vs Georgia Prediction

ireland

A congratulatory pat on the back to anyone who predicted anything another than a South African win last week, I certainly didn’t foresee events unfolding as they did. It was a remarkable performance and a result which took almost everyone by surprise, with victory even more miraculous when you consider that Joe Schmidt sent out a team which didn’t offload the ball even once.

Georgia provide an understandably different challenge this weekend, not least because it requires Schmidt to delve deeper than he might have liked into the squad reserves given their exertions against the Springboks and a six day turnaround before a final Autumn meeting with the Wallabies.

Ireland

Ireland scrum coach Greg Feek has more reason than anyone to be frustrated despite the result against SA. He’s admitted that much and sees this Georgian test is an opportunity to atone for indiscipline at scrum-time last weekend. McGrath is rested but the need to give Mike Ross another run-out means Ireland field a front-row of Kilcoyne, Strauss and Ross for what will be another tricky examination against the Georgians.

Another week, another new centre partnership, a sprained ankle restricted Jared Payne’s training this week and Robbie Henshaw has been given the week off, nevertheless Darren Cave is a surprise inclusion outside a recalled Gordon D’Arcy.

Bowe and Kearney both signed new three year contracts with the IRFU during the week but are rested for the Aussies, as are IRB World Player of the Year nominee Johnny Sexton, half-back partner Conor Murray and captain O’Connell.

In the Irish eight, Dave Foley earns a first cap alongside Mike McCarthy in the engine room and a back-row of Dominic Ryan, Tommy O’Donnell and Robbie Diack whilst untried should be competitive at the breakdown.

Georgia

So what do we know about Georgia? Alternatively known as ‘The Lelos’, a nickname adopted from the Georgian word for try and part of a popular cheer at national games – ‘Lelo, Lelo, Sakarartvelo’, translating to ‘Try, try, Georgia’. Not a great deal, as you can imagine.

The bulk of their group have French experience in the Top 14 or Pro D2, while the remainder are a selection of players from the Georgian National Championship with a pair from the Aviva Premiership and the top league in Russia.

A disappointing 9-23 loss in Tbilisi to RWC Pool C rivals Tonga last week was a setback to an otherwise positive couple of seasons in which they’ve retained the European Nations Cup ‘Six Nations B’ hence earning a ‘best of the rest’ in the Northern Hemisphere title.

Kiwi head coach Milton Haig – three years with Georgia, and the man who preceded Joe Schmidt taking his first steps on the coaching ladder at Bay of Plenty – is certainly optimistic about the growth of the game in Georgia. And it’s hard to disagree with a packed Dinamo Arena in Tbilisi. Just the 54,000 turned up to watch Georgia beat rivals Russia, though Haig is the first to admit that ‘if you play tiddlywinks against Russia in Tbilisi you’ll pack it out.

Not that it’s in any way relevant but painful memories of Eddie O’Sullivan’s catastrophic 2007 RWC when Ireland only just scrapped over the line against Georgia have been stirred again. And with Georgia capable of fielding a monstrous pack, albeit without Mamuka ‘Gorgodzilla’ and Clermont Prop Davit Zirakashvili, they will undoubtedly cause some discomfort for a depleted Irish front row.

All Eyes On

With bigger challenges ahead, the first Irish nominee for IRB Player of the Year since Brian O’Driscoll in 2009 is rested and Ian Madigan steps into the no 10 jersey vacated by Johnny Sexton for the Georgia clash.

Surely keen to shed the impact replacement tag which has slowed his progress at Leinster, Madigan has shown signs of a return to the form which almost seen him sneak on a plane to Australia last summer, recently knocking over 21 points in a crucial European away win in Castres.

Madigan has looked comfortable at this level in the past, but even so his familiarity with experienced provincial buddies Eoin Reddan, who’ll captain Ireland on Sunday, and Gordon D’Arcy should ease the burden on the former Blackrock college student.

Georgia often rely on record points holder Merab Kvirikashvili to accumulate a match winning tally and for much of their creative input from fullback, but it’s in the pack that Georgia like to mix it with the top nations.

The Lelos are heavy on Top 14 experience in their strong eight and there are a few candidates as ones to watch but perhaps their best hope of causing Ireland difficulties is Montpellier loose-head Mikheil Nariashvili. At 6’1’’ and 260 lbs ‘Misha’ fits the Georgian prototype perfectly – loves a scrum, and not shy of a big hit.

Prediction

It’s the ideal fixture for Ireland a week after facing the Springboks, changes made to the team allow for a degree of experimentation while there is enough continuity in selection to work on aspects of their performance which require improvement – primarily the set-piece.

As for Georgia, they’ll inevitably throw their weight around as always so I don’t envisage Ireland having it all their own way up front, but it’d take something truly exceptional for that to develop into a potential upset.

Ireland should expose Georgia defensively with two genuinely quick wings – Craig Gilroy and Simon Zebo – and replacements like Sean Cronin, Jack McGrath, Robin Copeland and Stuart Olding to make an impact in the last quarter – Ireland by 30 points.

By David Blair (@viscount_dave)

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images

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