Aviva Premiership 2015/2016: Round 18 Predictions

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Saracens vs Exeter Chiefs

Not knowing team sheets makes this one quite tricky to predict, but you would have to assume that Saracens will welcome back most of their England stars into the starting line-up, especially when you consider how keenly-felt their absence has been. The return of Owen Farrell, in particular, will be crucial, as Nils Mordt has underwhelmed in the 10 jersey in recent weeks. Exeter leapfrogged Sarries at the top of the table last week, but know a loss here will see that reversed.

Whatever happens, these two are firmly the frontrunners for a home quarter final. Sarries beat Exeter at Sandy Park under two months ago, but the Chiefs won at Allianz Park last year – they know how to do it. But galvanised by the return of their internationalists, the home side should win this. Saracens by 5.

Gloucester Rugby vs Bath Rugby

Bath are hitting their best form of the season so far, but all that means is that they have two wins in their last three games. Both, however, came against teams below them, at home. In fact, Bath have just one win against any team above them in the league all season – way back on the opening day against Exeter. They will be gunning for revenge after losing at home to Gloucester a couple of months ago. Gloucester, for their part, will be keen to get their European push back on track, with two losses in recent weeks derailing it somewhat.

Bath will be buoyed by the return of their stars in the backline, but having beaten their rivals for the first time since 2012 in February, the Cherry and Whites will be gunning to do so again in front of their adoring fans. Gloucester by 9.

Worcester Warriors vs London Irish

It’s fair to say Worcester have rather enjoyed the Six Nations period. They are one of the form teams in the league right now, with four wins in their last five games, including a highly impressive result away at Harlequins last weekend. London Irish recorded a crucial win over Gloucester last weekend, which means the glimmer of survival still just about shines. Worcester are all but clear of relegation now, but Newcastle will be firmly in the Exiles’ sights should they triumph at Sixways.

To be honest though, confidence is high at Worcester and even if it weren’t, there’s nothing to suggest that London Irish will win this one. Worcester by 7.

Sale Sharks vs Leicester Tigers

The Tigers have just three wins away from home this season, while Sale are unbeaten in the league in front of their own fans. They are also the only side to have triumphed over Leicester at Welford Road this campaign, and their surprise 10-3 triumph in February remains their only away win. Leicester will welcome back a couple of key individuals – most notably Manu Tuilagi who will be fresh from sitting on England’s bench for two games – but mostly these are two squads that haven’t been too affected by Six Nations call-ups.

Logic would dictate a home win, so this game represents a real acid test of the Tigers’ title chances. Win and they remain in the top four; lose and they could drop as far as sixth. It is traditionally the time of year that they start to land knockout blows, and having won on their last three trips to Salford, they’ll be confident. Leicester by 3.

Newcastle Falcons vs Wasps

Newcastle have gone four games and counting without a victory, and have watched Worcester speed past them and almost out of sight of the relegation battle. London Irish, meanwhile, have cut the gap at the bottom to five points. All in all, these are nervous times at Kingston Park. It is not, then, the ideal time to be playing the form team in the league – Wasps have eight wins (five with bonus points) in their last nine games. They have been in insatiable form and it’s tough to see who can stop them at the moment, especially when you throw in their returning internationalists.

Newcastle, to their credit, almost battled to an unlikely win at the Ricoh Arena in February, but they look powerless to stop a Wasps team that has shredded most defences recently. Wasps by 21.

Northampton Saints vs Harlequins

The weekend’s final game sees two teams on different curves do battle. Northampton rode out a wobbly start and have surged back into play-off contention, despite a dispiriting and pointless loss at Exeter last weekend. Harlequins were one of the seasons’s fastest starters, but have fallen to six defeats in their last eight games, including last weekend’s soul-destroying affair at home to Worcester. Both sides will be buoyed by the return of their England stars, but Harlequins in particular will be beyond relieved to have the influence of the likes of Marler, Robshaw, Care and Brown back.

The returnees should ensure that this is a different Quins side than has been so easily swotted aside in recent times, but they have not won at Franklin’s Gardens since 2012, and indeed haven’t registered a single win over the Midlanders since 2013. That looks unlikely to change. Northampton by 10.

By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images

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