Guinness PRO12 2016/17: Round 4 Predictions

PRO12

It was five out of five correct predictions last week, although a surprise result was avoided due to the cancellation of the Zebre vs Connacht game after 40 minutes.

Leinster vs Ospreys

The Ospreys travel to Dublin for their first big test of the season. Having started with a perfect 15 out of 15 points, it will take a herculean effort to continue this. Stuart Lancaster, Leinster’s new defence coach, will have a big job on his hands this week to come up with a plan for stopping a vibrant Ospreys attack. Leinster will want to gain control up front and concentrate on playing the game in the right area of the pitch. Johnny Sexton is also on the verge of a return following a lengthy injury absence.

This has the potential to be the game of the round if weather conditions are good. Leinster have won their last 16 home games in the Pro12, and although they will be stretched at times, they will be much more organised than anything the Ospreys have faced so far this season. Leinster by 7.

Glasgow Warriors vs Ulster

The unbeaten Ulstermen travel to Scotstoun knowing that it will take a big performance to overcome the Warriors. Glasgow have not lost at home in the Pro12 for over a year and Ulster may be slightly under-cooked having had the easier set of opening games. The home fans will be delighted to welcome back Finn Russell who has been out of action following a serious head knock at the end of last season.

It may be that Ulster can edge the forward battle, particularly in the set-piece, but with the home side keen to inject pace in to the game at every opportunity it will be difficult to keep an exciting back-line quiet. There won’t be much in it after 8o minutes, but home advantage may be enough to see a Warriors win with Ulster picking up a valuable bonus point. Glasgow Warriors by 4.

Treviso vs Newport Gwent Dragons

Treviso were on the end of an Ospreys hiding last week, whilst the Dragons were edged out at home to Munster. The visitors will probably start as favourites, however it is worth bearing in mind that that they haven’t won away from home in the Pro12 since beating Treviso in March 2015. The Dragons are also missing some experienced individuals including captain Lewis Evans and vice-captains Rhys Thomas and Nick Crosswell.

If the Dragons want to do more than occupy 10th place again this season, they really have to be winning this sort of game. However, this is a fixture which the Italians will have been targeting, and they may just want it more. Treviso by 4.

Munster vs Edinburgh

This probably won’t be the most entertaining encounter of the weekend with both sides looking to exert control up front. So it’s likely to be a big physical match-up between the two packs, with Munster prevailing due their more dynamic back-row. Edinburgh historically do not travel well, and their form thus far doesn’t suggest this is suddenly going to change. I would also back the home team to make the right tactical decisions during the game to keep ahead on the scoreboard.

With Munster having won their last nine Pro12 encounters with the Scots, it would take a brave man to bet against them failing to make it ten in a row. Munster by 12.

Zebre vs Cardiff Blues

The Blues less than impressive record in Italy may give some cause for concern; they have only won once on their last seven attempts, and that was in September 2014. However following their fantastic start to the season and in particular their victory over the Warriors last week, this is a Cardiff side with a new found self-belief. Zebre will be smarting from their abandoned game against Connacht when they were leading against the champions.

Assuming there is no over-confidence on their part, the Blues really shouldn’t come unstuck in Italy at the weekend. Cardiff Blues by 14.

Scarlets vs Connacht

Last season’s over-achievers have both had unremarkable starts; having lost all their games! So something must give at Park y Scarlets. With the home side having won the last 11 encounters between the two teams in Wales, history favours the Scarlets.

Both sides are capable of some scintillating rugby, but will the fear of defeat prevent them from playing to their strengths? There won’t be much to separate them on the scoreboard, but the Scarlets look to have a back division which is at least firing sporadically, whereas Connacht’s hasn’t yet turned on the ignition. Scarlets by 6.

By Keith Mackenzie
Follow Keith on Twitter: @Keith_Mack7

13 thoughts on “Guinness PRO12 2016/17: Round 4 Predictions

    1. They had 1 bad season, the still more or less have the same squad that got to the semi 2 years ago. You can make that argument with the likes of Munster but not Leinster. Its easy to look rampant when your playing Italian teams…

  1. Predicting the results look a lot trickier this week. I agree with Adam though and would go for Ospreys over Leinster.

    Cardiff players and fans have experienced enough poor results in Italy to avoid any over confidence (I hope)

  2. I often use these tips for betting purposes. I’m a bit sceptical with the Leinster V Ospreys game though I feel Leinster may sneak it.
    Glasgow by 6
    Treviso good value for money at 10/11 for the win
    I agree Munster win by 12 – 15
    Cardiff bonus point win by 18 points
    Scarlets by around 12

    My Friday Lucky 15 bet is:

    Exeter between 11-20 points
    Leinster between 1-12 points
    Treviso between 11-20 points
    Munster between 11-20 points

  3. I dont get your reasoning for Glasgow to win. Ulster have a better back line so if there pack have the edge they should win surely?

    1. That’s where we disagree then Cathal, as I think Glasgow have the better backline. They are also used to winning games when their pack is under pressure. Think it’ll be tight though and it’s not a game I would risk losing any money over.

    2. Have you seen the lineups, Cathal? Glasgow are starting: Hogg, Sarto, Bennett, Dunbar, Seymour, Russell, Pyrgos. That’s a pretty strong back line.. Not saying they’ll win (especially given Glasgow’s back row crisis), but I’m not sure you’ll get a much stronger starting back line in the Pro12.

        1. A humble creature you are. Ulster deserved the win overall. Glasgow did well to up their game in the second half, particularly with the three academy forwards getting their first professional game. Looks like they are going to have to ride a bit of an injury crisis for a while and are going to be threadbare during the internationals. Ulster look like serious contenders once again. Jackson had some great moments and what a signing Piutau is for them.

  4. Predictions

    Leinster vs Osperys, Leinster by 4
    Glasgow vs Ulster, Ulster by 10
    Treviso vs Dragons, Treviso by 9
    Munster vs Edinburgh, Munster by 20
    Zebre vs Cardiff, Cardiff by 16
    Scarlets vs Connacht, Scarlets by 10

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