England welcome Wales to Twickenham this weekend in what is categorically the most intriguing game of the tournament so far. Few rivalries stoke the flames of passion amongst fans that this one does; throw in the context of the World Cup and this is the biggest game for both sides since four years ago in New Zealand.
ENGLAND
All the headlines surround the changes in midfield. In the injury-enforced absence of Jonathan Joseph, Sam Burgess is given his second start at 12, with Brad Barritt shifting out one place to the 13 shirt. It is yet another new centre partnership for England under Stuart Lancaster.
If Burgess starting wasn’t too much of a shock, there was general surprise when it was leaked that Owen Farrell would be replacing George Ford in the fly-half jersey as well. Ford hasn’t hit the heights of his Six Nations form in the past month or so, but he was instrumental in England’s win in Cardiff earlier this year and his dropping has raised eyebrows.
The only other change comes in the back-row, where Ben Morgan has taken a knock to the knee and is replaced by Billy Vunipola. Given the impact the Saracens man had from the bench against Fiji, he may well have come in anyway.
Lancaster has resisted the urge to make any changes to the front five, which is potentially surprising given the troubles England have faced in the scrum in recent games. It will be a huge test for Joe Marler and Dan Cole, although arguably the Lawes-Parling partnership in the engine room is luckier to have survived, given the general feeling that it has underpowered the scrum, if strengthened the line-out.
One to watch: Owen Farrell
It is hard to escape the feeling that Farrell is the England coaches’ go-to man. George Ford has not been brilliant but he has not been bad either, and is hugely unlucky to lose his place. To justify the decision, Farrell needs a massive game. Lancaster has promised England will play with creativity, but Farrell’s natural instinct is to stand deeper to allow himself more time. With the powerful lines of Burgess on offer outside him, he needs to play flat enough to capitalise on them. Of course, there are few doubts about his ability to control a game or kick the points – two qualities that will be vital also.
WALES
England’s midfield selection acted as a welcome painkiller for Gatland’s back-row selection headache – Dan Lydiate is named in the six shirt in order to chop down England’s big runners in midfield. What they gain in defensive nous, however, they lose in both running and breakdown ability, with Justin Tipuric set to change that from the bench.
Samson Lee hasn’t been deemed fit enough to start on the tighthead, so Exeter’s Thomas Francis completes a remarkable rise to stardom in donning the number three shirt. Given his Aviva Premiership experience, he will hold no fears about facing the English scrum – his work-rate and fitness, however, could come under scrutiny.
Hallam Amos has usurped Alex Cuthbert in the back three, with the Cardiff Blues man failing to capitalise on the many, many chances he has been given to re-cement his spot on the wing. Gatland has also stuck to his guns at scrum-half, where Gareth Davies starts again and will be hoping to continue his rich form of try-scoring form after the Uruguay game. Lloyd Williams’ presence on the bench means there is no place for the more experienced Mike Phillips.
One to watch: Sam Warburton
His qualities as a leader, mainly by example, are not under scrutiny, but given Justin Tipuric’s form, Warburton needs a strong performance. The breakdown was an area where Fiji caused plenty of problems for England in the opening game, and that is something that will not have escaped Wales’ attention. When Warburton works in tandem with Faletau to hit the rucks, it can have a devastating effect on opposition quick ball.
PREDICTION
When England stormed Cardiff to everyone’s general surprise back in February, they played a quick, precise game that was typified by the Bath maestros George Ford and Jonathan Joseph. Neither play this weekend, and their replacements are wholly less comfortable with ball in hand – indeed, it is illuminating to read Welsh fans’ glee that Lancaster has picked the midfield that he has. Psychologically, you expect the Wales team will not be worried.
And therein lies the problem with this England selection. For all Lancaster’s talk about playing an open game, the players in the play-making roles are the safer of the options available. It is all set up for England to take Wales on at their own game – a strategy that has rarely worked for anyone. Wales are very, very good at their own gameplan, so I am struggling to see the sense in trying to beat them at it.
To top it all off, there will be much trepidation about the set-piece, where Wales, despite their relative rookies, look far more settled than England. If the hosts cannot get a foothold at the scrum, and the breakdown, their one-dimensional midfield will only look even more so.
Of course, it is rarely wise to write England off at Twickenham, and before the tournament started I had them to win this one fairly comfortably. But I cannot escape the feeling that Wales are going to come into this game with such a confidence that they can win, given what is facing them, that they may well do so. Wales by 3.
By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43
Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images
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Jamie, surprised that you feel Wales have such confidence because Joseph is injured. He is a fine player, of course, but i’m not sure that he will make the difference.
Although I am a fan of Ford, I am not sure that the change at 10 is that disruptive, as I think Farrell’s gradual return to form has gone somewhat under the radar, and he is – undoubtedly – a better attacker than widespread opinion would have us believe.
Reasons to be cheerful;
Barritt is a good player and will be better than last friday.
Ben Youngs is a very good player and will be better than last friday.
Billy V is in better form than Ben M
Burgess is a far better player than the “novice/should be 6/new centre partnership” doom-mongers would suggest.
England’s back 3 are better than Wales’s back 3
England centres can stop the momentum of the Welsh midfield
Englands bench is far better than Wales’s bench, and will provide an effective impact. ONLY Tipuric could provide an impact for Wales.
England are at home, and this does make a difference.
Still worried about the scrum though….
I can’t help but get the feeling that no-one except Burgess and the coaches believe he can deliver what’s expected.
Personally I hope (and think) he will be outstanding, and his partnership with Farrell (Barritt will do his job) will be the key. Farrell and Burgess were good together against France, and they came off the bench together last week, and added some impetus that was lacking at that point in the game.
Dazza, I believe :-)
I think we must have been typing our posts at the same time, and then I ready yours and thought, well at least it’s not just me.
So much negativity about this team selection, and I just don’t understand it. Look at the positives these guys bring to the team, and get behind them!
Blimey – was expecting an England tip to win by 3. Genuinely surprised as I think any confidence/optimism in Wales is largely based on support. I tip Wales by 5 but that’s mostly my heart talking. I’m getting jitters just thinking about this game – it is the biggest game in my life since the WC semi and the 05 Slam decider. Massive.
As an England fan, I’m happy to see Bradley Davies and Dan Lydiate over Luke Charteris and Justin Tipuric, so like the Wales fans may be happy with some of our selections, I don’t think Gatland has nailed his either. However, I’d love to see Phillips and Cuthbert starting as well, so credit to Gatland for moving away from his old favourites and picking on form.
I feel the game will be won and loss upfront though, and England definitely need an improvement here. Lancaster cannot be afraid of using his bench early, and introducing Mako, Brookes and Launchbury if he needs more go forward in the forwards or Webber if he needs to control the set-piece better.
I think the bench is where England are much stronger. Samson Lee can’t be fit and Jarvis isn’t a loosehead, so Jenkins and Francis might need to run long-shifts. Also, Wales backs on the bench aren’t that good and I can’t see them coming on and changing the game.
I’m a little disappointed that Lancaster hasn’t started with Slade and found a place for Nowell on the bench, because if a winger goes down I’d be loathed to move Brown, and Goode can’t play wing. But England can bring on Wigglesworth if we need to close the game out or Ford if we need to chase it, and therefore we have different options on the bench depending on what the situation calls for.
Hmmm. I do feel there is an awful lot of unnecessary panic about these changes. The only real difference between the team people seem to want and the team we have is the absence of Ford and Joseph. The latter is injured and the only potential replacements are the inexperienced, large Burgess or the inexperienced, fast Slade – neither is ideal but that is the situation that has to be dealt with.
As for Ford/Farrell – I don’t see the issue. Ford has been playing deep all tournament so criticizing Farrell because he might do the same seems stupid to me. To my eyes he has seemed the more dynamic of the two of them when he has come on in recent games.
I think a lot of the panic comes from the changes not made. The forwards have struggled but are the same(Billy excluded). I for one wanted launch to partner parling/lawes and George at least on the bench. This would have offered more balance imo. And burgees and barritt don’t seem like they could compliment each other
Humongous game and surprised Slade wasn’t called up as like for like with Joseph out. Think the rejiggling of the midfield plays into Gatland’s hands. Wales by 4
Interesting that all the bookies still have England odds on (1-4 in some cases) with a 9 point advantage on handicap betting. What do they know that we don’t? I can only assume that a lot of money has gone on England and they are trying to make Wales a more attractive bet to make their match book less vulnerable.
Yeah, that’s pretty much how bookies work! The odds on England winning are always poor (not just for rugby) because so many people in England bet on them.
I’m beginning to find these constant references to Burgess’s lack of caps/experience amusing. Gareth Davies only has two more caps than SB, and Sam vitally has the big game experience from his League days which means the Twickenham pressure will be nothing new to him.
I reckon England are going to really target Davies, and with the likes of Wood and Robshaw hounding him it will probably work. England by 5.
England winning by 15 with twenty minutes left …. Cuthbert comes on & scores 3 tries under the posts, Wales win by 6 points …… I wake up sweating in bed cursing that cheese I ate at supper time !!.
Seriously though it’s too tight to call, one score could be the difference & it could come down to a bounce of the ball or the referees interpretation of the scrum.
A lot has been made of Halfpennys absence but I have no qualms about Biggar, he is an outstanding kicker, so it could come down to a contest between him & Farrell.
I am hoping that by the final whistle Burgess will actually know who Scott Williams is and what he is capable of ……
If Liam Williams can last the pace & the scrum has at least parity I go for Wales by 3 to 6 points, but that’s with fingers crossed on both hands …..
Equally Stesco, I hope that at the end of the game Williams wishes he’d been facing Joseph rather than Burgess or Barritt
I don’t think anyone really knows how Burgess will go on Saturday and that has to be a concern, not just for England fans, but for the Welsh as well. There’s no doubt in my mid that he’s a big game kind of player and that he’ll rise to the occasion – the question is whether that will be enough to overcome his inexperience with union at this level.
We shall see, but I am hoping for a Barritt-like performance in defense and a SBW-like performance in attack. One thing is for sure, the Welsh defense will be worried about him and I hope that he can open some gaps for the back three to take advantage of.
If England can get to Gareth Davies then I think Gatland will rue not having the experience of Phillips on the bench – especially as he always seems to play well against us
If the pack play like they did against Ireland in the warm up then, even with scrum woes, we can win this.
You have to admire the English!
They got a proctologist to remove their still beating heart (it leaves no obvious scars) and replaced it with an ARSE! – just to make a game of it for us neutrals.
Thank you – hope it’s a draw!
DDD
” Stille nie Aran ! ”
Die verkeerde regmaak – veg vir geregtigheid – KAAPOW !
I’ve just realised one reason why Barritt has been shifted to 13 and Slade is not playing. North is playing right wing, and will be running at Jonny May. Barritt will be needed to shackle North, because May will probably not cope with him by himself.
I think the whole selection is aimed more at stifling Wales than creating anything.
England by 8.
No point in writting why. (Replacements)
England by 8.
As oft said in Star Wars – “I have a bad feeling about this…”
I think changing the gameplan to ape Wales is a bad plan – its like trying to out kick chase Ireland. If defence is an issue, why not bring in Nowell on May’s wing too! Staggered also that Launchbury isn’t in the side. I’m also worried about the long term impact on the squad. Whilst I’m not against Farrell starting (he has looked better recently), the fact that the likes of Youngs (both), Barritt, Cole etc can having shocking games yet retain their places, does rather undermine SL’s picking on form matra.
I would be feeling a lot better if Slade was there. Think a second kicking option would have been useful.
But Benjit, didn’t England out kick chase Ireland in the recent game at Twickenham?
God, I can’t remember the match and it was only a few weeks ago. I remember the Watson try being a good kick, but don’t remember us using the tactic constantly. But remember we up against Zebo at fullback, not Kearney, which makes a massive difference.
Oh another reason to be concerned for England fans; no verbals from Gats. I always find he turns up the volume when he’s worried. His respectful tone worries me!
No there is verbal
Apparently Wales are going to Smash Burgess and England
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/34354637
Selectively interpreted verbal if you want to take it badly i.e. he said
“”We won’t be trying to single out Sam Burgess at all,” said Gatland. “We will be going out there to smash him like everyone else,” he added.”
obviously here “smash” means hit, not smash in the sense of mullering the opposition.
He then goes on to say
“We’re not rubbing our hands together about one player thinking there’s a weakness there – that is not the way we look at it.
“When you underestimate a player, it comes back to bite you.”
Which surely is as far away from any sort of “verbal” as can be imagined? Looks downright massively respectful to me.
Now if he’d said “Who’s Sam Burgess?”……
Brighty – Par for the course – the Floating Turd is talking shite again – no two ways about it! I’m sure you will finally want to flush him out after this WC. If you want I’ll send you my Guinness stick – I’ll gladly pay for the post and packaging.
DDD
” Stille nie Aran! ”
Die verkeerde regmaak – veg vir geregtigheid – KAAPOW!
If you are not trying to single out a player then why name drop him?
That said if they were going to try and smash one player i’m not sure why you would pick Burgess they must fancy a challenge he’s made out of bricks
Because you’re answering 1 of a dozen questions asking you about Sam Burgess. Seriously, the press conf (you can see the whole thing on Wales Online) was question, after question about Burgess. What do Wales think of him? What will they do to deal with him? Are they scared of him? Are they glad he’s picked? Are they terrified? etc. Gats was just answering the question.
As for singling out Burgess – they didn’t. The answer is the opposite of it. Twice Gats made that point – the sentence is clear that they are not giving him any special treatment. For once Gats has launched no hand grenades, no matter how disappointed this makes the press.
Ok fair enough
Maybe is just another classic case of the Media jumping on the dramatic phrases to make a story out of nothing
haven’t seen the press conference only the media response
Yep, the media are desperate for some new angles on this. I watched Burgess deliver that “who is Scott Williams?” line and straight away you could see the headlines. At the time I couldn’t tell for sure – he looked to have a bit of a grin so could have been a joke. Even if it wasn’t it still doesn’t seem like a big thing. SW plays his club rugby in a diff league. SB has never played against SB. He wasn’t known to be starting until recently so it’s not impossible to believe he genuinely hasn’t spent any time considering him. Some players don’t study their oppo’s – they study their own gameplan. So no problem with what he said. The media though, especially the Welsh media … Jeez, it’s like he set fire to Max Boyce and spread the ashes over Glyndwr’s grave.
Yeah just seen it, looks to me that he may simply not have heard the name the questioner said and was simply asking who had said it, complete non-starter to try and stoke the fury of any Welsh fans silly enough to fall for it.
Yes I fear Sam was trying to make a joke, but underestimates how much union journos like to twist a story (ironic as the question was twisitng what Scott Williams had said in the first place IMO). As you point out Gats is being very restrained this time, which makes me think he feels he doesn’t need to wind us up as he’s already confident of the win.
Respectful? Didn’t he say recently he was going to “smash” us? Fair enough he was referencing whether any special attention would be made for Burgess…but to misquote him he said he was going to smash him like the rest of England?
Wales will for sure be up for this however so will England. For me none of the teams have great creativity in the mid field and this will be won in the forwards. It will be war of attrition and I can’t see England loosing this! England by 9!
I agree with Jamie.Odds slightly in Wales favour-experience and class.Also recent England success based on 14 guys getting wings in situations to score.Can’t see this happening with new 10/12/13.
England beating Fiji despite some of the worst rugby seen in years tells you they will win because of their individual talents. Wales made a meal of beating a bunch of farmers from Uruguay. England by 16+
Wales v Uruguay –
Pts margin of victory : 45
Num of Uruguay tries : 0
Num of Wales players from Uruguay start XV in start XV tomorrow : 6
I can’t see where any meal was made of dispatching that side? Anyway, glad you’re so confident, assume you’ve put a few grand on the nailed on England win because they played so badly to beat Fiji… (some may think that Fiji actually played well..).
At some pt everyone is going to realise that these “minnows” or 2nd/3rd tier sides or whatever you want to call them are far better drilled and honed than at any previous WC. The IRB have funded the lesser sides to enable their entire squads to be together for 3 months. NZ v Namibia last night was another match that wasn’t the old fashioned pt-a-minute hammering, as even the less well drilled oppositions now have fit and committed guys across the field.
I’m not that confident Wales will beat Fiji. Tomorrow is going to be gigantic and then we have to do it all again as early as Thursday. Tough turnaround.
Not just fit and committed guys across the field, but at least a handful fit and committed guys who have also got experience of top flight domestic rugby in Super Rugby and other leagues! You’d think I’d learnt my lesson after round one, but it’s totally starting to screw up my superbru predictions this lack of pt-a-min drubbings!!
I honestly don’t count Fiji as minnows anymore
They are just behind Argentina in the rankings and seem to have found some organisation and cohesion to go with their strength and flair
Yep, tough turnaround indeed ….. unlike England’s 3 x 7 & an eight day turnaround …. strange that !.
The host nation with a favourable match schedule, never happened before that….. ;-)
This is really hard to call but just have a feeling Wales may edge it unfortunately. Ironically this game may affect Wales worse even if they win – any more injuries and it might prove very tough against rested Fijian side who have proven more than capable.
I have no idea what’s going to happen, there is no way to reliably predict it so I’m not even bothering (although I’ve had concerns about the England selection). Incredibly lucky to be going to the game tomorrow (from Cardiff, although I’m English) and by the time the game starts at 8pm I fear I might have turned into a puddle of jelly from the nerves.
I’m telling myself that if Wales do win it’s ok as they stand a good chance of going deep into the tournament and Cardiff will be buzzing (which it already is – I cannot believe of there’s a better host city in this WC in terms of atmosphere).
But overall I’m hoping for a seriously intense game and no serious injuries for either side.
Enjoy the game Matt! The atmosphere at England Fiji was incredible – the only time I’ve a similar atmosphere was when we beat the ABs and that was only after the game. It was far more intense than any six nations game.
Tomorrow should be amazing win or lose. Am very jealous
I’ve sat and thought about little else but this game all week, with the squad announcements, following every bit of team news I could, even went as far as youtube to find out about the England lads I knew less about and checking out the stats on pretty much everything. After doing all that I am thinking Wales will edge it I’m not saying we will get a 4try bonus point (although I’m hopeful) although I do think we will just deny England a losing bonus point, i’m going Wales by 8.
(I think Wales will beat Fiji with bonus point, lose to Aus with losing bonus point – then England will beat Aus no bp and beat Uruquay with one – putting the group with Wales ontop via 1bp then England go through second)
Have gone round in circles trying to predict this one and have ended up tying myself in a great knot. Have no idea who is going to win. Went for England by one purely on the basis of national bias. Very interesting that both sets of supporters are backing their team to win as normally one side or the other will be pessimistic about the game. Shows just what a massive game this really is in all of our eyes. Am still hoping both England and Wales go through from this group. Am going to need some beers before the game as my nerves are on a knifepoint!
I’m going to call this now, Wales will not win another group stage game.
Are you in dreamland?
Don’t give up your day job Banastre! Something I hope bomber will NOT be hearing over the coming months.
“Banastre: I’m going to call this now, Wales will not win another group stage game.”
Have a nice day love, mine is an absolute belter! ;-)
Now Banastre might not have made that comment very diplomatically, but Wales aren’t going to walk either of the next two games, given their problems with Aus and south sea islands generally, and particularly given their injury list. I still see them beating Fiji, but not easily, and many Welsh commentators have already said that Wales may not beat Aus. I do however accept that there are ways of saying things…..!
Sorry – thought I was on the rate the match thread!
Heart: England. Head: Can’t make it’s mind up! Watching this game could be seriously bad for one’s health.
Fifty minutes to kick off, hope you got this right Bomber. Swing low……………………….
Well done Wales. You deserved it.
Lancaster resign you f*cking loser
Don’t get me wrong I’m ecstatic we got the win but ffs can we win a game without needing to spend the week on injury updates?
A total smash and grab. Magic. Cardiff is buZzing tonight.
If you are Welsh and have boots please report to The Vale Hotel on Mon morning.
Eating humble pie, smash and grab Wales, massive second half performance. Poor from England, thought we had it in the bag.
Nailed that prediction Jamie! Wales by 3 it is!