This is the huge game that has been on the horizon since last year, and it will hopefully live up to its billing. It’s a shame that it’s not quite the Grand Slam showdown between two unbeaten sides, but the encounter will be no less ferocious as a result.
Yes, England has already won the Six Nations, but a defeat in Dublin will be a failure and Dylan Hartley will absolutely not want to be presented with the trophy having just been beaten.
On the other hand, a victory will mean a second successive Grand Slam, and a world record unbeaten run of 19 matches, so the stakes remain high. And as for Ireland’s motivation, a defeat will drop them out of the top 4 Rugby World Cup seeds if Wales beat France, and they also showed in Chicago that they quite like pooping the opposition’s party to create one of their own.
Most people are expecting an aerial bombardment from Ireland, but I’m not certain that we’ll see it. Eddie Jones has selected three potential full-backs in the back three, with Anthony Watson, Elliot Daly and Mike Brown all reliable under the high ball, and I think Joe Schmidt is smart enough to avoid giving the opposition exactly what they expect.
Italy showed that England can be vulnerable when things aren’t going their way, and so I’m expecting a few surprises from the Irish in how they approach the game. It makes it slightly tricky to write a preview though, because I am essentially expecting the unexpected.
The loss of Connor Murray is a big one, however. He and Johnny Sexton have been key in executing Schmidt’s gameplans so flawlessly, and without the scrum-half, Ireland will lose an element of control. Moreover, Sexton looks slightly less reliable without Murray by his side, and he’s an obvious target for the big English ball-carriers. They’ll be under instructions to keep Sexton on the back foot, and that could be the key to the game, whatever Ireland has up its sleeve.
Whilst Ireland have to adjust to cope without Murray, England welcomes big Billy Vunipola back into a starting berth, and a man of his stature does not only provide a big psychological boost. He is the key to generating England’s momentum, smashing over the gainline to create quick ball for George Ford and Owen Farrell. That ball-carrying momentum is what England has lacked in the poorer performances in this tournament, and you realise how important Billy has become to the English game.
I said the same of New Zealand in Chicago, but given England’s unbeaten run, I’m finding it hard to bet against them, and I think England will secure the Grand Slam. If they get ahead early and the Irish heads drop towards the end, I can see it being relatively comfortable as England’s bench finishes Ireland off.
My prediction: England by 11
Average Superbru Prediction: England by 6.75
Paddy Power: England by 4
What is your prediction for the match?
Follow Hutch on Twitter: @Hutch_James
I see an extremely tight possibly edgy game with England sneaking it by 3.
This is a game that is going to won by one-piece individual good fortune, and whichever way it goes can’t see it being more than 4/5 points. England have to be favourites but Ireland will be wanting to spoil the party and make amends for the loss to Wales. I can see an Ireland win but has stated before, at most by 5 points.
I think you’re right Hutch. Although Ireland are at home they showed quite a few weaknesses last week and without Murray there to control the ship both Sexton and Ireland will struggle.
Set piece will be interesting and I think that could be where Ireland may be in with a chance of upsetting England, particularly at scrum time.
England by 11 seems like a good margin, but I’m hoping for a larger one!!
I was also going to mention that Ireland have dropped their best lineout forward, which seems odd when they should be trying to disrupt England’s ball at the set piece.
Really excited for tomorrow, which includes family sign-off to spend all afternoon in the pub.
Especially seeing as their lineout was one of the biggest weaknesses against Wales, winning only 75% of their own ball and failing to compete on Wales ball. Do the same against England and they will be in trouble
I can see why they’ve dropped Toner in favour of Henderson though. One thing Toner is good for is lineout ball, and he was rubbish last week. Henderson brings a different level of physicality combined with good lineout skills as well.
Lawes and Itoje to target Sexton and put massive amounts of pressure. Billy to run directly at Sexton when carrying the ball. Without Murray or Sexton Ireland will be a much weaker team.
The loss of Murray & Kearney is key to this game, Ireland needed to be at full strength to give them a realistic chance of winning, unless England ‘don’t turn up’ ( and I can’t see that with so much at stake ) they should win comfortably ….. but you cannot rule out the Irish, they are capable of beating anyone on their day.
I think the Toner selection highlights Schmidt’s anticipation for two things – 1) ball in play time to be high 2) physicality. Toner is not as capable in either :)
I honestly can’t pick this one.
Form says England, and I really think our team is superior to Ireland’s. yet we know this Ireland team is capable of so much more than we have seen this tournament. And I’m old enough to have seen a supposedly superior England team turned over a number of times by supposedly inferior home nations sides.
Head says England, but my nerves are growing over this one.
Its the bench that swings it for me Benjit. With Murrays injury we should be able to control the game more but when the two benches come on Englands quality doesn’t dip while (with the exception of POM) Irelands drops off a cliff.
Even if England are 10 behind with 20 to go I fancy us to still win it
Do you know what Marmion and McGrath are like? Obviously Murray is a huge loss, but I have no idea how good the replacements are.
Also do we know what the conditions are likely to be? The weather can often be a good leveller.
Marmion is a quick SH with a snappy pass but he doesn’t have anywhere near the same level of game management as Murray. Don’t know much about McGrath.
Weather forecast is cloudy with scattered showers 50% chance of some rain during hours of play
I think most English fans are underestimating ireland here. Ireland always play a blinder against us in Dublin add in to the mix it’s st Patricks weekend and you know they’ll come out all guns blazing.
Don’t attach too much importance to the St Patricks day hype. Just remember that St Patrick was an Englishman!
England by 15 points!
Impossible,.. there was no England in 400AD , the Celts had been pushed west and north by the Romans after Boudicas defeat, the then Britons lived in west of Britain in lands called Wales,west Wales now{corwall &devon} upto cumbria, livepool was 50%Welsh speaking until 120 yrs ago , bla bla ,…anyway the Irish and the Welsh believe he is a Celt from west or S.Wales , .. First i heard he was English ?!
Incorrect.
He was an englishman (for the want of a better word) coming geographically from the south west peninsula of cornwall, Devon, Somerset and Dorset.
You might like the fact he was english (most irishman are in denial of it too) but it happens to be true although the term ‘english’ is a moot point. Celt as you say being preferable.
i see , so where was he born ?read the Guardian 17/3/17 , or just google it , it says that “Patraig” also wrote where he was from and the names wee Welsh/Celtic , …of course we believe St George killed a dragon too!, i could knock him out with a daff or a leek !, at least our saints have a REAL or believable history and a gravestone , “Padraig” is a Celtic name and IF he was from England how would he have talked to CELTS ?, …HE WAS FROM S,WEST WALES, As he says in his own words ! read them !
Osiboy: technically true there was no place called England but then there was no place called Ireland either. He was kidnapped by ‘Irish’ pirates from what is now SW England at the age of about 16.
Nooo, what is now SW England was called West Wales at the time , Also Celtic lands ,know your History and Geography !?,. and the rest of west Britain up to Scotland {the fact that he would have spoken Celtic seems to be overlooked OR DID HE HAVE A WESSEX HAND DICTIONARY ? , at 400 ad the west of mainland Britain was Welsh speaking , Liverpool to Carlisle was called Strathclyde, ….also Celtic/Brit, not English , …..the Irish invaded wales often and visa versa , you learn about Henry Vlll, We learn about Celtic history; before henry VllI ,….do you that Agincourt was won by the Welsh bowmen who made up over 50% of the “English” army ?, under a Welsh king ,no? thought not ,…this the reason the Celts love to beat England ,…. they love the glory but give no credit ; Patraig was a Celt and received by them, ..no Englishman is Celtic , There was a place but sure, it was not called Ireland , nor is England called england , its called lloegre in Celtic or Welsh , it means “lost lands “, we WERE HERE FIRST AND YOU MONGELS ARE FROM THE LOST LANDS , GOOGLE IT !;…., awright geeza heers tudays serman as St Patrick would’ av said ” ,…aint gonna work geez, Unfortunately i was scooloed in Engayland from 6 -11 yrs and forced to learn this English trash , no mention of the defeat to a spanish armada only the victory ,CELTIC Tales or stories , anyway ,…
Back to Rugby , well played you deserved to be champs , so congrats to the best one eyed nation on the planet !
42-6 to England.
isn’t that a cloud type/name?
Well the 42-6 I was invoking is the result in 2003, when all the chat was about how Ireland would derail England’s grand slam run at the final hurdle in Dublin.
I googled 42-6 to try and find out what you were referring to and the first results were bible passages:
Isaiah 42:6 – “I am the Lord and I have taken you in righteousness”.
I can get on board with that, sounds kind of inspiring.
Or it’s Job 42:6 – “therefore I despise myself and repent in dust and ashes”. Hope that’s not me tomorrow afternoon, after my cocky prediction!
As I stated England are stating as favourites, righty so, but I just can’t see Ireland rolling over, although I hadn’t taken in to account Murray being out.
Stroudos he is referring to your name not the score LMAO!!! i.e. sounds a bit like Alto Stratus or cumulus numbus
Ah I remember watching that 2003 game in a pub in the Mumbles. England comprehensively dismantled Ireland to the dismay of all the Welsh watching. I seem to remember the last try being particularly good.
God I’d love a resul like that tomorrow. Can’t see it though. Ireland will definitely miss Murray but all they’ve got to play for now is pride and that makes them very dangerous.
hmmm
I think that the lode Murray and Kierney will tilt the game toward England.I also think that Ireland having beaten tje All Black’s have gone into a shell and are not playing to there best ability. I Think England will possibly take some time but will comfortably win this game by 10 points!
Ireland took a physical battering in Cardiff whilst England had a stroll in the park.We are physically and mentally in a better place and the loss of 2 key players must have dented the confidence of the Irish.It could be close for 60 but then I expect England to forge ahead and win comfortably.
Ireland will blow England out of the water, doing what they did to them in 2011. I just can’t see Ireland ending up with only 2 wins, and they will be out for redemption.
a bit OTT But you got the win!
My prediction is England by 35-40 points unfortunately.
Especially if they play like they did against Scotland
think the best prediction goes to big Dai !
Thank you Osiboy :-)