Here at TRB we recently put a tweet out asking if anyone fancied contributing during the internationals this month. One man named Colin got in touch. Colin lives in Australia. Colin is a die hard Wallaby supporter.
And here’s why Colin thinks England will be sent back home with their tails between their legs…
1. Battle of the coaches: Eddie Jones < Michael Cheika
Two top Aussie coaches. Old team mates from Randwick 1st grade days. And let’s be honest, Eddie is a very intense, highly-skilled coach and naturally England will improve short term. So much so, that the games will be competitive!
But Eddie has a long history of over-training and melting the brains of the players he most wants to improve. Jones’ pressure can be way too much, especially when winning is the not the result.
Dressing rooms always seem to become stressful when Jones is in the house. Love him or despise him, he always gets results and moves on quickly. Player reactions to Jones are polarising. Player casualties seem to be part of the collateral damage of a Jones reign.
Eddie Jones loves a mind game and he has touted Cheika in the press a bunch of times without effect. Cheika is not naming a side until the last minute only to play an even bigger mind game back to Eddie. Sorry mate! We don’t react to anything much you say… after all, you’re coaching England.
2. Ranking, Ranking, Rankings
The actuaries of rugby have the Northern Hemisphere teams competing for ranking spots 5,6,7,8,9 & 10. Southern Hemisphere teams hold the top four ranks. So, England’s Six Nations win is a bit of a “beat up on your neighbours”, and while this will make you feel happy, it does not make the top four sweat too much about our visitors’ arrival.
3. Hard and Fast Pitches
England have never really mastered the Aussie playing fields, where the emphasis is on running the ball, fast cleanouts and quick recycling from the ruck. Has Eddie Jones got the “Lilly Whites” fit enough to play this style of Cheika game?
As a benchmark, chase down the Super Rugby game between the Chiefs and the Waratahs recently – a great game of rugby, irrespective of who won the game (it was the Aussie side, incidentally). It was a physically punishing game that went at breakneck speed for over 70 minutes.
Catching up with Andrew Kellaway, the Waratahs fullback, a few days later, his comment was that the physicality was right up there, but the speed of play all game was the hardest thing to cope with. Hard, direct running by big and fast backs will challenge England to the max.
4. Foley & Phipps
This Waratah winning combination sees both players reaching the top of the form. The timing is perfect to whoop England 3 -0 as a dry run for the Rugby Championship where the top four teams knock each other about.
Half back Phipps’ passing has become flat, fast and very accurate, giving more time for fly-half Foley to plan his attack. Phipps’ ability to sweep around in cover defence sees him snuff out many a breakout play. This is the main reason why the Waratahs beat the Chiefs last week.
5. Massive Speed & Size in the Backs
Rugby is a game where size matters! Australia’s choice of big and fast backs is neverending. We could have Kerevi, Kuridrani, Naiyaravoro, Horne and Folau as our backline. Good luck to those who choose to take them head on at pace.
6. Don’t be a Fardy Pooper
A high-speed, high-energy ball-stealing trio is a real concern for any tourist to Australian rugby. Hooper’s “energiser bunny” style of tackling anything that moves, and his deceptive speed over 40 metres, will cause havoc.
As for Pocock, is there anything more to say? Don’t blink or it’s stolen. Look for Nigel Owens to keep him under control for a short while, but expect 3-4 turnovers per half nonetheless.
And then Scott Fardy: “Mr Ruthless”. Fardy’s no-frills, abrasive style of play will see the contest being brought front and centre. The question is, which English player will take him on?
By Colin Dagger (@col0027)
Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images
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Thanks Col always nice to hear what the other side are thinking
1. Both good coaches and Colin freely admits that EJ will bring a short term boost to results. I think it is still early days and the short term is still now
2. The ranking system is very good and works pretty well but there are three issues with using it to predict results.
a) The biggest flaw in the ranking system is that points count double during a world cup because supposedly teams try harder (as if they weren’t trying hard before). England had a terrible world cup and their ranking took a hammering, since then it has climbed 5 points and we are undefeated (albeit against NH oppo)
b) Rankings show where a team were but not were they are headed. Post RWC both teams have changed personnel either on the pitch or behind the scenes and its bound to have an impact.
c) Games are decided on the pitch not in the rankings table if England steal 1 win the rankings the gap closes significantly. Lets see what the ranking say at the end of tour
3. Good point well made. EJ has selected more mobile backrow options like Itoje, Harrison and Clifford but I agree this is the biggest challenge for the team to overcome. They need to dictate the pace of the game through greater possession and working well in phases.
4. Yes our half back pairing isn’t quite there with Youngs wayward passing and Fords terrible form this is another area of concern for me. I’m hoping that those two will be consigned to the bench so that we can see Care and Farrell tearing it up
5. I hope Aus go down the bigger is better route as it plays into England’s hands. We struggle more with craft than size.
6. Krutojbury will be tasked with couteracting that while our big ball carriers will be targetting putting them on the deck instead of over the ball.
Also in England’s favor
1. No Ladesma will the Aus scrum still be better
2. Borthwick’s lineout work is second to none and England have become excellent lineout poachers
3. In the past we have struggled against strong backrows but performances in 6N have shown we have improved in that area
4. Tactics, similar team to world cup but this time we have a coherent structure, tactics and sensible substitutions
5. Aussie 12 – Who is going to play there Kerevi (uncapped), Leilifano (not trained), Hunt (injured/uncapped). Its not going to be a settled combo whichever way
6. Nothing to lose – If we go down 3-0 its the expected result so happy as long as we play well and show improvement, 2-1 good result for us, 1-2 great result for us terrible for Aus, 0-3 disaster for Aus
“Phipps’ passing has become flat, fast and very accurate”
So the polar opposite of Ben Youngs then – loopy, slow and normally over the fly-half’s head
Couple of small comments:
2. Rankings
Incorrect, and I’m not sure it’s been true at any point since January 2009 (when Argentina were very briefly ranked 4th). England are ranked 4th currently.
3. Hard Pitches
May be a fair comment in general but England won last time they played a test in Australia and so did the Lions (with a few of the current England team).
Simple reasons why Australia will win the series
1. Better form
2. Better team
3. Better coach
4. Home advantage
5. Start of Australia’s season vs End of England’s
Simple as that. England can most certainly win a match but win the series…I don’t think so but who knows?