European Rugby Challenge Cup 2014/2015: Round 1 Predictions

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The main event might not kick-off until tomorrow, but Europe’s new dawn actually starts tonight with the advent of the European Rugby Challenge Cup (that’s the Amlin, not Heineken, for those scratching their heads). Here’s a whistle-stop look at all of the big games, along with a set of predictions that might help if you’re keen on your SuperBru.

Gloucester get things underway against Brive this evening, and as with any game involving a travelling French side, the home team is the strong favourite. Brive will bring physicality – not all of it legal, as their abysmal card count this season highlights – but Gloucester have begun to impress and will win this one easily enough.

Friday’s two games begin with an easy one to call – Bordeaux will impress their home fans with a comfortable win over Edinburgh, while Newcastle shouldn’t have a problem overcoming the Bucharest Wolves, as they did last season. Saturday kicks-off with London Welsh’s trip to the south of France to play Lyon, where they are unlikely to find any respite from their woeful start to the season – a home win is on the cards there.

Cardiff’s home game against Grenoble is one of the more difficult ones to call. Grenoble have made a solid start to the Top 14 campaign, but with a relatively thin squad it’s unlikely that they’ll start their first team in this competition. Cardiff haven’t been great this year, but at home to an understrength French side, they should have enough to get a win – after all, they did beat Toulon there last season.

Exeter’s Saturday evening trip to Bayonne will be a good test for them, and they should come through it with flying colours given the way they’ve started this season. Bayonne are one of the weaker French teams and, like Grenoble, probably won’t take this competition as seriously as the Top 14.

Heavily-fancied Stade Français round off Saturday with their game against the Dragons, and will be looking to put a fair few points past the PRO12’s basement Welsh side. The return fixture at Rodney Parade – one of the most hostile atmospheres around – will be a close call, but in Paris the home side should be far too good for the travelling Dragons.

Challenge Cup Round 1 Predictions

GLOUCESTER RUGBY to beat Brive by 15
BORDEAUX BEGLES to beat Edinburgh by 20
NEWCASTLE FALCONS to beat Bucharest Wolves by 25
LYON to beat London Welsh by 18
CARDIFF BLUES to beat Grenoble by 5
ZEBRE to beat US Oyonnax by 12
CONNACHT RUGBY to beat La Rochelle by 25
EXETER CHIEFS to beat Bayonne by 9
STADE FRANCAIS to beat Newport Gwent Dragons by 10
LONDON IRISH to beat Rugby Rovigo by 35

How do you see the weekend going?

By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images

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3 comments on “European Rugby Challenge Cup 2014/2015: Round 1 Predictions

  1. I’m not sure about this competition.

    When the Heineken Cup sides dropped into the Amlin, it meant you had to win your pool to progress.

    Now we have some tough pools, but because there 3 of the 5 second placed teams will also go through, there’s not the same sense of “do or die” in the pools.

    I also find it surprising that they have “given” the Champions Cup spot that was previously for winning the Challenge Cup to a fabricated play-off system, therefore making the Challenge Cup less worthwhile.

    In the pool stages I can’t see the Challenge Cup teams going to hard for this competition with the changes, as there is a higher change of getting to the knock-outs, and also less reward if you do. The alternative is to focus on the league, where you may have a relegation battle or a better chance of securing Champions Cup qualification next season.

    If a side made the Champions Cup play-offs and the Challenge Cup final, which do you think they would prioritise?

    • agree that its a bit crap that the winners of the Challenge cup don’t get automatic entry to the Champions cup, but as a point of information, the winners of the challenge cup, if they haven’t already got qualification to the champions cup or the play offs, are given their league’s spot in the play offs.

      • I guess that’s something at least then, but I think it may end up a bit like the Anglo-Welsh. Play your reserves in the pool stages and if you reach the knock-outs you might take it seriously.