A new dawn in Europe, or the same tournament with a different label on it? That’s for you to decide, but to whet your appetite for the weekend’s action, have a read of our unscientific, based-entirely-on-gut-feeling preview of pools one, two and three.
POOL 1
Teams: Clermont, Saracens, Munster, Sale Sharks
Ones to watch: Jon Davies (Clermont), Will Fraser (Saracens), JJ Hanrahan (Munster), Michael Paterson (Sale)
A pool with three of last year’s four semi-finalists is never going to be an easy one to predict. Both Clermont and Saracens sit near the top of their respective domestic leagues, and both have come within touching distance of winning the Heineken Cup in the past few seasons. They are packed with international quality and despite both having a few injury niggles, their round one game will be one to savour.
Munster have made a worryingly slow start to the season, but you write them off at your peril. Whether they come to love this tournament as much as they loved the Heineken Cup remains to be seen – but you suspect they will. If they could play Leinster every week they’d be the best team in Europe. As for Sale – they’re much better than they were a few seasons ago, but they still look comfortably the weakest side in this pool. A shock win at home to one of the other three is the most they can hope for, probably.
Munster have the pedigree, but have not started the season very well at all, with Thomond Park more akin to a sand castle than a fortress at the moment. Saracens and Clermont have to bottle up the hurt of their near misses these past few seasons, and that will see them through this tightest of pools.
To qualify for knockouts: Saracens (pool winners), Clermont Auvergne
POOL 2
Teams: Castres, Harlequins, Leinster, Wasps
Ones to watch: Remi Lamerat (Castres), Asaeli Tikiroituma (Harlequins), Ian Madigan (Leinster), Alapati Leiua (Wasps)
Pool two is a most intriguing one, mainly because it’s tough to pick an outright winner at this moment in time. Normally, you’d look straight at Leinster, but their start to the PRO12 campaign has fallen far below expectations, their ignominious 23-34 loss at home to Munster still ringing in the ears.
One thing we can probably be certain of is that Castres will not be progressing from the group. They have a poor record in Europe and given their shaky position in the Top 14 at the moment, they’ll be likely to focus more of their energies there, all too aware of what happened to Biarritz last year.
That leaves Wasps and Harlequins, then, and given the way they’ve both started the season you’d have to say Wasps are the most likely to challenge Leinster for top spot in the pool. They’ve got the pack and they’ve got so much flair in the backs it’s almost unfair. One man who must remain fit, however, is Andy Goode – as good a player as Rob Miller is, he’s not the man to lead them out of this group.
Leinster have enough nous and power to get out of this group, but it won’t be plain sailing for them. Harlequins and Wasps will challenge, and could cancel each other out in terms of qualification from the group – no doubt Castres will chip in with a few wins at home, too.
To qualify for knockouts: Leinster (pool winners)
POOL 3
Teams: Leicester Tigers, Scarlets, Toulon, Ulster
Ones to watch: Marcos Ayerza (Leicester), Scott Williams (Scarlets), Matt Giteau (Toulon), Stuart McCloskey (Ulster)
Along with pool one, pool three share the mantle of that old cliché, “Pool of Death”. Toulon will be the obvious favourites to win the pool, having won the Heineken Cup for the last two years in a row and given the sheer quantity of world class players they have amongst their ranks, particularly now those away on Rugby Championship duty for South Africa and Argentina are being welcomed back into the fold.
Ulster, however, are being backed by many as this year’s dark horses. They have started the season well, dispatching fellow title hopefuls Glasgow with ease at the weekend, and have a host of exciting young backs breaking through (keep an eye out for McCloskey in the centres, mentioned above). The front five, in which they have injuries and potential suspensions coming out of their ears, is the only worry.
Scarlets, like Sale, will be the weak link in the pool, although they still have the quality to pull off a surprise win or two. The Tigers typically start the season slowly, but even by their standards this year has been woeful. Their defence has been the definition of leaky and their attack has looked blunt. A loss in round one at home to Ulster and suddenly the trip to Parc y Scarlets the following week starts to look very daunting.
Toulon have enough firepower to secure top spot of the pool, although they won’t go unbeaten. Ulster, at the moment, look most likely to secure a best runner up but if the Tigers can beat them in round one, anything could happen.
To qualify for knockouts: Toulon (pool winners), Ulster
By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43
Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images
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Why will Saracens and Clermonts bottled up hurt get them out of the group?why will their hurt be more impactful than Munster’s?