European Rugby Champions Cup 2014/2015: Round 1 Predictions

Pool 1

Saracens against Clermont is the headline game of this pool on the opening weekend, a repeat of last year’s semi-final which Saracens won so convincingly at Twickenham. Clermont were insipid that day, but they have freshened up both on and off the pith in the off season and have even managed the rare feat of an away win in the Top 14 this year. That said, they are missing a key individual in Morgan Parra and winning at Allianz Park is significantly more difficult than in Oyonnax or Brive.

The other game in pool one sees Munster travel to Salford to take on Sale. The hosts may put up more of a fight than many are expecting, especially given the travails Munster have had in the PRO12 this season. They’ve got the taste of winning back in the last few weeks, however, and should simply be too powerful for the Sharks.

Saracens vs Clermont Auvergne: Saracens by 6
Sale Sharks vs Munster: Munster by 9

Pool 2

Harlequins kick things off on Friday night when they welcome Castres to the Stoop. Both sides look strong, and the visitors, with Rory Kockott and Remi Tales at half-backs, will bring an intelligent tactical kicking game. Quins have been hit and miss so far this season, having not won two matches in a row yet. They should be too good here, however, purely because of how awful Castres have been on the road so far – they average over 40 points conceded per game away from their home ground.

Leinster take on Wasps on Sunday evening, in what looks like a must win game for the hosts. They are favourites to emerge from the pool, and rightly so, but have had a distinctly un-Leinster like start to the season, culminating in that loss to great rivals Munster in Dublin a few weeks ago. Wasps look a more rounded outfit than they have for some time, with their outside backs and back-row looking particularly strong. Leinster, though, have plenty of European pedigree and enough players who will step it up for the big games to see them to a relatively comfortable win here.

Harlequins vs Castres: Harlequins by 18
Leinster vs Wasps: Leinster by 12

Pool 3

Another year, another Tigers vs Ulster head-to-head battle. There’s no question who come into this game as favourites – Ulster are flying high in the PRO12, they won both games against the Tigers last season and their opponents this weekend have a horrendous injury list. That said, the hosts welcome back Marcos Ayerza to bolster a scrum that has been in trouble recently, and with Ulster’s issues in the engine room this could be an area the Tigers look to dominate. The form book points to an away win, but you can never really write off the Tigers at Welford Road. It will be very, very close, but the Irish Province have what it takes to win in Leicester for the second year in a row.

There’s not much to say about the other game in this pool. The Scarlets did manage a win away at Racing Métro last year, which was a fine result for them, but Toulon at the Stade Felix Mayol are a completely different kettle of fish. The Heineken Cup champions should begin their pursuit of a third European crown in a row with a bonus point win.

Leicester Tigers vs Ulster: Ulster by 2
Toulon vs Scarlets: Toulon by 30

Pool 4

Unquestionably one of the most intriguing pools in the competition, given that just about any of the four sides could just as easily win it as they could flop to last place. The opening weekend will be hugely telling, then. Bath travel to Scotstoun to play Glasgow with a second row and two youngsters in the back-row, and their reserve front row thrust into starting action after their usual three were handed a pasting by Wasps last weekend. The Warriors have home advantage and a settled squad, with plenty of experience to come off their bench. Had Bath had everyone available it might have been different, but they could well get off to a losing start this weekend.

The other game is an all-French affair, which common sense dictates must be a home win. Toulouse’s patchy form (they lost five in a row earlier this season) complicates things somewhat, as does Montpellier’s form, which saw them grind out a win away to Clermont Auvergne earlier in the season. It’s a very tricky one to call, which means the safest bet is to default to the prediction of a home win in France.

Glasgow Warriors vs Bath Rugby: Glasgow by 3
Toulouse vs Montpellier: Toulouse by 6

Pool 5

This almost feels like an anti-climactic pool to end the opening weekend’s predictions on. Getting the formalities out of the way first, the Ospreys will wipe the floor with Treviso, who are comfortably the weaker Italian side this season having suffered such an exodus over the summer.

That leaves Northampton’s trip to Paris to take on Racing Métro, which is amongst the most difficult games to predict. Northampton are being talked up as one of the pre-tournament favourites, and yet a loss in the first round always heaps the pressure on and makes things twice as difficult. Their saving grace could be that Racing have generally, and bizarrely, viewed European competition with disdain, and as they sit mid-table in the Top 14 with a real battle on their hands to move into the qualification spots. Their team seethes with quality, though, with Johnny Sexton and Jamie Roberts back in tandem and keen to prove a point. Is this the year they finally make a splash in Europe?

Racing Métro vs Northampton Saints: Racing by 2
Ospreys vs Treviso: Ospreys by 40

What do you make of our predictions above? How do you see this weekend going?

By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images