Glasgow vs Munster: Guinness PRO12 Final Prediction

Here we are, the last weekend of the season and all eyes turn to Belfast for the first ‘neutral’ venue final in the history of the competition. Ulster will be kicking themselves that they’re not here to take advantage of the venue, whereas Glasgow and their growing fan-base might be feeling fairly hard done by this decision. Anyway, on to the game.

Munster

??The men in red come into this game on the back of a bruising and nail-biting encounter with the Ospreys last weekend. Assuming they stick with Ian Keatley at 10, who had an awful time with the boot last weekend (missing three from five), they’ll need to up their game considerably against this fired up Warriors side. Munster have been in excellent form this calendar year, losing only once since New Year’s day. They have a few key players with injury doubts such as Murray, Zebo and O’Mahony, and this will undoubtedly hurt their chances.

Injuries or not this is a side chasing a long-awaited PRO12 win, and who can and will improve on their performance last weekend. We also know that in the pressure-cooker that is a cup final, nobody has the more mental strength, grit and determination than Munster. They’ll know exactly what is needed and how to do it.

Glasgow

Glasgow left it very late in the game last weekend to snatch victory. They trailed Ulster for most of the match and, truth be told, nobody could deny that on balance Ulster probably deserved to win that game. Like Munster, Glasgow have grit and determination in spades, and despite trailing for so long, I was not surprised to see them snatch the win in the last five minutes. Finn Russell had a superb match and his game-managing prowess only grows with each passing clash.

This will be the final game in Glasgow colours for several club heroes like Al Kellock, Nico Matawalu, and a certain Daniel Tailliferrer Hauman van der Merwe, the latter two moving on to other clubs, so this will be this particular group’s last bite at the apple, so to speak. Glasgow have had their best ever season and fully deserve to finish sitting atop the table. They’ve weathered being seriously depleted during international windows and are well capable of hanging on in there and fighting it out to the death. They know Munster well and they’ve been in this situation before.

All eyes on

Undoubtedly, all eyes will be on the final clash between two literal giants of the game and legends of their respective clubs who will be taking to the field against one another for the last time. I speak of course of Al Kellock and Paul O’Connell. Kellock has played with the Warriors for the last nine seasons and captained the club over 150 times. He’s been a key figure in this Warriors side and I expect to see a lot of t-shirts with his giant frame and “Big Al” written on top all over the stadium on Saturday. I can’t think of a a more fitting send off for this servant of Scottish rugby than for him to lift some silverware in his last ever season.

As for Paul O’Connell, he’s been strongly hinting that last weekend’s clash against Ospreys was probably the last time he’ll ever play at Thomond Park. He’s been a vital component of almost every success of this Munster side, through PRO12 title wins and Heineken Cups, and you know that to a man, this team will pull out all the stops to send him off with on one last high.

Prediction

As a Munsterman living in Glasgow, I’m enormously torn on this match. In the two earlier encounters between these sides this season, victory went to the home side. Glasgow might be named as the “home team” by virtue of their league position, but in reality this will be very much a home game for Munster. The Red Army are well known for their willingness to travel, and since Munster never made it out of the European knockout stages this season, they will be there in force for tomorrow’s final. I imagine that despite the provincial rivalries that plenty of Ulster, Connacht and Leinster supporters who bought tickets for this final will root for a fellow Irish side to win, but any other “neutral fans” will surely be cheering on the Warriors though. How could you not?

Glasgow fans will be there in force too, no doubt, but with the added logistical difficulties they face in actually getting there (by air or by sea) they will definitely be in the minority in Belfast. The pain of last year’s defeat to Leinster will be recalled and used as a catalyst this time. Despite it probably being Paul O’Connell’s last Munster game, I feel that this Glasgow team want this win a little bit more. The fact that they’ve never won it will fuel their hunger but also their doubt. Munster won’t have that problem and with that “home advantage” I reckon they’ll take the win. If they were guaranteed to have Murray and Zebo on the field, I’d be more confident in that call, but truly it could go either way, and after lighting up the PRO12 these last few seasons, no-one begrudge Glasgow finally getting the glory. Munster by 4.

By John O’Brien (@tiptackler)

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images