Guinness PRO12 2014/2015: Round 4 Predictions

Edinburgh vs Llanelli Scarlets

Edinburgh were well and truly beaten up by Ospreys last weekend. They haven’t been able to build on their opening round success away to Munster and have struggled both home and away since then. I would say that losing to Connacht at home doesn’t bode well for them, but then again, give the run of form/luck Connacht seem to be riding at the moment, maybe it wasn’t such a poor showing. Scarlets’ away form has been terrible, only winning once on the road in 2014. The Scotsmen, however, haven’t won at Murrayfield for almost a year. They do have the likes of Ford and Gilchrist coming back, but the visitors are on an upward swing after handily dispatching Treviso last weekend, and if not for a lapse in concentration in round one against Ulster they’d be sitting on a much healthier ‘Played three, Won two’ record at this stage. Scarlets’ record in recent years against Edinburgh is pretty good. This match is decidedly tricky to call but I’m hoping Scarlets’ momentum from last weekend carries them through.

Prediction: Scarlets by 5

Glasgow Warriors vs Connacht

Both teams are unbeaten thus far this season and have overcome defending champions Leinster. No small feat, by any means, but for one side the dream of an unbeaten season ends tonight. Form and history favour the Warriors here, who are unbeaten at Scotstoun since last November. Connacht last won away to Glasgow way back in 2003. Logic dictates that you’d have to fancy Glasgow to win this game, but as has been so often the case even this early in the season, write off Connacht at your peril.

Prediction: Glasgow by 17

Leinster vs Cardiff Blues

This season is not going all that well for Leinster. It’s not often you seem them as the lowest ranked Irish team in the PRO12. While an away loss to last season’s co-finalists was certainly possible, losing away to Connacht was clearly the upset of round three. Tonight they are at home and as anyone will tell you, they are exceedingly tough to beat there. Leinster have won the last 15 encounters between these two teams, while Cardiff are yet to score a try in over 170 minutes of game time. With the exception of that Zebre match, Cardiff have had a tough start to the season, with games against Glasgow and Ulster. Will this have toughened them up for what awaits them in the so-called ‘Laighin Pit’? Perhaps, but I still don’t see them winning here.

Prediction: Leinster by 20

Zebre vs Ulster

Zebre have been soundly defeated in all three of their games thus far the season. Without even going into the pros and cons of Ulster’s form this season, it should be noted that Zebre have yet to defeat any Irish side in the PRO12. They ran Ulster close in their first ever encounter but since then, their performances against this side have not been good. Even with no team sheets in front of me, I’m fairly confident that Ulster will come home easy winners here and secure an early season double against the Italians.

Prediction: Ulster by 27

Munster vs Ospreys

This one is tricky to call. Munster fell at the first hurdle this season playing host to Edinburgh. Ospreys meanwhile are unbeaten but in fairness they’ve not had the toughest of opponents (although nor have Munster, to be honest). Neither side have had three wins on the trot since February of this year. I’ve no squad information as I type this so am forced to go on form and history. Ospreys have the edge on form but Munster have both history on their side and home advantage, so I think they’ll carry the day here.

Prediction: Munster by 7

Newport Gwent Dragons vs Benetton Treviso

This one is also tricky to call as both sides have had terrible starts to their respective seasons and are currently in the bottom half of the table. Form slightly favours the Dragons who’ve at least picked up two league points from their early losses. In the last four encounters between these teams, victory has gone to the home side – I suspect that trend will continue this weekend.

Prediction: Dragons by 5

How do you see this weekend going?

By John O’Brien (@tiptackler)

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images