Leinster vs Ulster
The first Pro12 play-off sees an all Irish affair with pre-tournament favourites Leinster hosting Ulster. Both sides have appeared in six semi-final play-offs before; Leinster have won them all, whereas Ulster have only a solitary victory. History would suggest then that the home side should be good for another final, however they suffered a heavy 30-6 away defeat to Ulster only three weeks ago and are missing both Rob Kearney and Josh van der Flier.
Both sides though are still full of international quality and there is little between them on paper. There are some fascinating match-ups particularly at fly-half where Johnny Sexton and Paddy Jackson will do battle, and at inside centre where the collisions will be huge between Ben Te’o and Stuart McLoskey. In tight games like these it is often the team that can get some sort of edge up front that go on to win, and it is here that Leinster may just shade it, particularly in the front-row.
In both semi-finals home advantage is going to be key; in play-off history no visiting team has won, and despite Ulster hitting form at the right time, Leinster at the RDS will book themselves yet another Pro12 final. Leinster by 5.
Connacht vs Glasgow Warriors
In a repeat of the game from Round 22, Connacht welcome back defending champions Glasgow to the Sportsground. The 14-7 win for the Irish was a gutsy performance which booked them their first every play-off position. Glasgow will be making their fifth successive appearance. It is doubtful whether the Sila Puafisi sending off would have changed the outcome last time round as the Connacht defensive line strangled the normal attacking zest of the Warriors’ backline. The fact that Glasgow know what to expect this time around is one thing; being able to find a way through a team which are playing although their lives depend upon it is quite another.
There is only one change for the home side with Eoin McKeon coming into the back-row, whilst Glasgow coach Gregor Townsend will need to come up with a plan to counteract the Connacht midfield without the services of Alex Dunbar who is out for the rest of the season. It is in this area where Glasgow may struggle to compete with the dynamism of Bundee Aki and Robbie Henshaw.
Pat Lam believes that the special atmosphere at the Sportsground can make a big difference, and it is difficult to argue with Connacht’s home record this season. In another close game, the home side are likely to be celebrating come full-time. Connacht by 6.
By Keith Mackenzie
Follow Keith on Twitter: @Keith_Mack7
Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images
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Confident in Glasgow!
I want to be, and I think Keith’s wrong about the influence of Puafisi’s red card, but I think Connacht will simply want it more. If it were at Scotstoun, there’d be no question, but it ain’t, and the weather’s looking shit!