We’re exactly a month away from the start of the Rugby World Cup in London, so how are the main protagonists* shaping up?
(*N.B. we’re taking ‘main protagonists’ to mean the teams we will be providing extensive coverage of during the RWC!)
AUSTRALIA
Reasons to be optimistic
They seem to have sorted out their scrummaging issues, or at the very least it is not the weakness it has been for the past… however long anyone can remember. Mario Ledesma’s impact there has been obvious, as they stormed to the Rugby Championship title. They seem to finally possess a set-piece platform that is worthy of the undoubted quality that they have behind the pack.
Causes for concern
The weekend’s loss to the All Blacks exposed a lack of strength in depth, especially in the pack, and also cast doubts over what exactly Cheika was hoping to get from the game. Why change the team that had won the week before so drastically? It has not only destroyed the confidence gained from that famous win but also led to the rest of the rugby world questioning if they just caught the All Blacks on an off day.
ENGLAND
Reasons to be optimistic
Saturday’s win over France proves there is ample competition for places, and it was also encouraging to see the likes of Owen Farrell and Alex Goode, who haven’t produced their best on the international stage for some time, pull big performances out of the bag. There are welcome selection headaches elsewhere in the backs with Sam Burgess and Henry Slade proving they can cut the mustard at international level.
Causes for concern
A largely second string pack was decimated at times by a French unit that, whilst more experienced, was likewise lacking a lot of first choice players. England’s front line eight can certainly mix it with the best, but particularly at hooker and back-row, there will be concerns about the performances of the guys who will be providing the back-up come the tournament proper. Discipline was also an issue at the weekend, as two entirely unnecessary yellow cards prove.
IRELAND
Reasons to be optimistic
Two victories from two warm-up games means the winning streak goes on for Joe Schmidt’s Ireland. It will give them a huge amount of confidence going into the tournament. Most encouraging, however, has been the attitude of the entire squad in buying into Joe Schmidt’s ideology. No player is bigger than the team and despite the strange nature of the warm-up tests, they have still played as a unit, not individuals. They’re not the most fashionable side around, but they’re certainly one of the most effective.
Causes for concern
There aren’t really too many right now. The enigma that is Ian Madigan remains a problem – he’ll be involved, almost certainly, but where? Is he deputy to Johnny Sexton or is he a centre? Would he be trusted to kick goals and run the game in a knockout match for 80 minutes? He may well end up a super-sub. There were uncharachteristic errors creeping in against Scotland – enough that the Scots almost grabbed a hugely unlikely win – but you can bet that Schmidt will make sure they are erased before the tournament begins.
NEW ZEALAND
Reasons to be optimistic
They’ve put the loss to Australia to bed with an emphatic win over the same opposition, thwarting any claims that the World Champions have lost their aura. The experienced midfield triumvirate of Carter/Nonu/Smith finally clicked. Most of all, though, they have that innate belief that only the All Blacks seem to possess. They’ll arrive at the World Cup not only knowing they can win, but expecting to.
Causes for concern
Few and far between. Jannie du Plessis and even Sekope Kepu showed up Tony Woodcock’s scrummaging at times, but the 100+ cap veteran won’t be going anywhere and knows all the tricks in the book. The more experienced members of the team might have been coming under a bit of pressure for their shirts, but a consummate win over Australia essentially put paid to those ideas. Otherwise it becomes a case of deciding which of their countless high class options to leave out.
SCOTLAND
Reasons to be optimistic
Since Vern Cotter took over last summer, Scotland have been playing some very attractive rugby. That continued in the loss to Ireland at the weekend, a game that will nonetheless have given them plenty of confidence – a second string team came within a score of beating Ireland away. That should give them the belief that they can emerge from a very tricky pool, in which there will be no easy games.
Causes for concern
The thing is, for all the good rugby they played against Ireland, they still didn’t win. And this inability to get themselves over the line consistently has always been Scotland’s problem. Yes, Cotter, along with his host of young Glasgow Warriors, has solved the issue of Scotland’s turgid rugby, but he has yet to solve the main issue: the mental block that has seen them continue to lose games they should be winning.
SOUTH AFRICA
Reasons to be optimistic
They will always be able to return to the basics of their game, with that trademark powerful pack and consummate game-managers in Ruan Pienaar and, if selected, Pat Lambie. They have unearthed, in Jesse Kriel and Damien de Allende, a potentially world class, if slightly raw, centre partnership, and they do have some hugely exciting outside backs in Willie le Roux and the wily Brian Habana. All the elements of a world class team are there.
Causes for concern
What their recent losing streak has shown, is that they aren’t yet sure how to use all those elements. Handré Pollard has been the preferred fly-half and while he is capable of magic, when things aren’t going his way his goal-kicking and game management go to pot. These are two pillars of the South African game, and his failure in both regards have seen him probably play his way out of the starting team. It means the Springboks will likely return to their traditional strengths, but will that be enough to win the whole tournament? It has been in the past, but it may not be now.
WALES
Reasons to be optimistic
They came good in the Six Nations when they had to, finishing probably as the strongest side and playing some glorious rugby to go along with it. Warren Gatland masterminded them at the 2011 tournament and so why shouldn’t he do it again? They have always been one of the fittest sides around and that should ensure that the gruelling schedule over what fans will hope is two months doesn’t take too much of a toll.
Causes for concern
Injuries and loss of form from some very experienced campaigners has left them a little thin on the ground in some key positions, namely front row and centre. It means the first choice guys are going to have to put in huge shifts while also ensuring they don’t overdo it and get injured. The focus on fitness left them short on actual rugby skills against Ireland – that is a problem that is fixable but must be a focus as the tournament looms. Their dire record against Australia is something that can’t be ignored and a loss to England in the earlier group game will leave fans very panicky indeed.
So, with one month to go, what do you make of the prospects of the above nations?
By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43
Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images
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Do Oz have any particularly new faces in their front 5? And they won the SH Ch’ship. Does this mean that the NH’s perception of Oz having no front row was just that, more a perception? Or is Super Mario Ledesma really that much of a magician? Last up @ HQ, when ‘England battered’ them in the scrum, Oz actually won 100% of their scrum ball, England 80%. But these stats seem not to count up here. A missed warning? The loss to the AB’s last Sat, whilst comprehensive, somewhat flattered NZ. A turning point was the yellowing of Cooper. The ABs took advantage & Oz never caught up. Provided Oz get enough WC ball, as any team must, their backs can be as threatening as any. The idea that they lack depth up front due to 1 loss v NZ seems a pretty flimsy one to me, esp when compared to their 100% Ch’ship record.
Do England really have reason to be optimistic over Slade & Burgess a mth out from the WC & on the strength of an almost last chance saloon showing last week? Talk about 1 swallow. Much too premature to state this.
England’s 1st pack will be no pushover in the set piece & maul, but will they win the WC br/down? Esp with the best open side in Euro watching it on TV? Still rules are more important than winning the thing of course. and can they pass like backs as per the SH? They have a skills gap which lancs is blind to & their midfield likewise lacks guile.
England… And can their forwards pass like backs as per the SH?
Ireland have one of the smartest coaches around… although he too hasn’t yet beaten the ABs. He inserted core players into his back lines & packs for the ‘warm ups’. They implement his game plan & tactics better than most… & they go out to WIN! It’s no coincidence that Ireland up up to No. 2. They out think & outplay most & so they’re playing with belief with good reason. They seem to have cover for most positions & their players fit more seamlessly into their patterns of play when coming on as replacements. A likely WC threat, with France to beat 1st up. Then? Time will tell…and did England miss a trick here by not signing up JS instead of the ‘visionary’ Lancaster? No hiding places or excuses in the WC which will reveal much soon enough.
Scotland? Already stated previously elsewhere that I expect them to surprise a few in the WC. Starting with Italy this Sat? Again we’ll see, but the pendant from the S Times may find that sealed lips gather no feet. Hope so at any rate.
Don
Fully agree with your views re England.Glad to know there are a few pragmatists around.I think the next 2 games are key.Win both and England will very probably qualify for 1/4s.Lose both(certainly could happen)England will struggle to land 2nd place.We will know a lot more by pm 5/9.
You’re ‘1 of the few’ harlequin. Many see me an anti English, but I call it how I see it, but what would be, could be, ought to be or should be is 1 thing. A track record of success is another.
When compared to J. Schmidt’s Int’al record, Lancaster’s doesn’t stand up. It has to be in the coaching. And the players can usually only be as good as the head honcho’s methods, tactics, systems etc.
As a Kiwi, I suppose I ought to be pleased that England have Lancs instead of JS, but as a rugger purist, it depletes me somewhat as to how he limits England’s players.
Ah well, still beat France tonight I think? Won’t they? I mean although the French have a Saint as coach, he’s a world class duffer isn’t he?
Regds
SA? Need their exp front row of du Plessis x2 & ‘The Beast’… & they need to last 80. Also Meyer must decide on his midfield & stick to it, esp with De Villiers 1/2 jiggered & not game ready. Likewise with his locks. Is Matfield really better than De Jaguer?
Provided they mix it up with some midfield guile as well as their usual ‘biff’, then they’re also likely to be even more of a threat, the SH Ch’ship notwithstanding. Argentina may agree?
Wales? I dunno. Good on paper, no so good v the SH. Good in the 6N though. Perhaps old ‘Cement head’, as Enoch describes him, has a mental block which translates to his team sometimes?
Could do fairly well, as they mostly have the players for it, although their prop options would worry me. It’s also down to their belief in Gatland, holding their nerve & executing his ‘appropriate’ tactics. Can they pull it out of the bag this time? Mmmm? Tough ask.
As for NZ, well they should go all they way shouldn’t they? And if not them then who?
Seems reasonably straight forward on paper, but unfortunately games are played on grass & in tight ones, esp 1/4, 1/2, not to mention finals, it can only be stress that can make these matches so tight. That & refs who need to stand up & make the right calls & not over ref games in order to be seen to be doing the correct thing.
It’s how a team reacts to & deals with pressure the best who should prevail. Making the right calls, i.e., taking a penalty?… or a scrum?; & taking the right choices of whether to run, kick, pass… or hold to the bloody thing if there’s no other option available. Doing these at speed, with timing & accuracy is key. Or in other words, playing basic rugby par excellence… oh & not making rudimentary mistakes. Easy-peasy innit?
Are the ABs best equipped to enact the aforementioned? If so, then shouldn’t it be a piece of cake?
Hope so, but we’ll have to see.