Part 2 of the Rugby Champi…I mean, World Cup semi-finals, sees the Wallabies take on the Pumas in what has the potential to be a thriller. With the Aussies having picked up the Celtic injury-bug and the South Americans coming off the game of their lives last week, a place in the final genuinely hangs in the balance – make sure you time your Sunday lunch around this one.
AUSTRALIA
The Aussie chances of success are boosted hugely by the presence of one David Pocock in the number eight shirt. Against Scotland, they struggled to slow their opponent’s attacking ball to the same extent that they had done against England and Wales, and there’s no hiding that the absence of the man with biceps the size of bowling balls was a key factor in that.
Michael Hooper, playing in the 7 shirt as he has done all tournament, didn’t have a bad game by any means, but he couldn’t play his natural game. He was holding back in the defensive line a touch and hanging off the tackle, waiting for the opportunity to get in over the ball – and he’s not bad at that, but he doesn’t have Pocock’s natural instinct to sniff out chances and then the rock-solid technique to take them.
Michael Chieka will know that his side in general were far too passive against the Scots, and they can’t afford to repeat that against an Argentina side that have discovered a ruthless streak of late.
Aside from the returning Pocock, Israel Folau has also recovered to add some razzamatazz from the back, but loosehead prop Scott Sio has failed to recover – in his place comes James Slipper, who will become the most-capped Australian prop ever. Presumably he has had a sign saying “I am a prop and not a fly-half and therefore should not be throwing miss-passes” taped above his bed this week.
The main concern for Cheika will be how experienced players could make such basic and costly mistakes in their previous outing. Looking at the three tries they conceded, they were all due to spectacular brain-farts by the men in green and gold. They were all, in their own way, pretty incomprehensible and, if the Wallabies switch off to that extent on Sunday, they’ll be badly punished.
One to Watch: Matt Giteau
The veteran midfielder has been singing the praises of his opposite number – Juan Martin Hernandez – in the press, but Giteau has just as big a role for his side as the South American maestro. Although Foley was spectacularly good against England, he still showed signs of being flaky under pressure against the Scottish (despite his ice-cold nerves for his late penalty) and a lot of that can be avoided if Giteau identifies when his fly-half is starting to wobble and – perhaps for just five minutes or so – shows his authority and pulls the strings himself to relieve some of the pressure on the Tahs playmaker. We didn’t see him too much at first-receiver last week.
ARGENTINA
Hands up who saw that display against Ireland coming? Ha, well I did. No, really. After impressing in the group stages, it had become clear that the South Americans have found their feet playing at a high tempo, wide game that has the capacity to stretch teams to breaking point. Yes, in the first 20 minutes they were helped by an Irish defence as threatening as a bag of bunnies, but I will go as far as to say that the opening and closing quarter of their victory over Ireland was as good as anything the All Blacks showed against the French – and that was as close to ‘total rugby’ as you can get.
The strong and industrious tight five is still there, with Creevy adding a touch of class in the two shirt, but the back row’s work rate is what makes them such a threat. All over the park – around the fringes, in the middle, around the wider channels – the likes of Lobbe, the under-rated Senatore and the aggressive Matera (in particular) were charging about making huge yards with the ball in hand, getting their team surging forward. One thing that struck me as well was how often they would carry the ball either two passes out, or off one wide pass from the scrum half to give themselves more space to exploit – it was smart, brutal and relentless and, with Nicolas Sanchez steering the ship with ice-cold composure, they looked the real deal.
It helped, of course, that they have a back three that can now be held up as one of the best units in the tournament. We’ve known about Imhoff for some time – in fact, many at the Millennium Stadium may have some not-so-fond memories of him standing up Leigh Halfpenny – but it was still awesome to see his pace being brought into play at every opportunity, and to to see him work for it, too.
Tuculet and Cordero offer something different to complement Imhoff, and it’s Cordero who has really caught the eye. I saw him playing for a pants Argentina side in the Under-20’s two years ago and I was at a loss as to why nobody had signed him up, as he effectively kept his team in games single-handedly. Sometimes, he perhaps tries to make too much happen, but the positive is that he has the skill-set to pull it off and – like Imhoff – the work-rate to go with it.
One to Watch: Pablo Matera
Matera was epic last weekend. He doesn’t seem to have been negatively affected by an injury-plagued 18 months in Leicester (which seems standard procedure these days) and instead looks unnervingly hungry to prove himself. The best thing about his display last week was that he didn’t lose his head as he had done earlier in his career – instead, even when the pressure was on, he kept his aggression at the right levels; still high enough to obliterate Ian Madigan a couple of times, but not so high as to give away penalties when his team was already starting to look shaky.
PREDICTION
I’m going to get splinters from sitting on the fence for this one. I genuinely think it could come down to Pocock’s fitness – if the Brumbies man is genuinely match-fit (not Ben Youngs v Australia ‘match-fit’), then I think the Aussies will win at a canter – they’ll ride out the Argentinean storm and have the class to put their opponents away in the second half. Assuming he’s not fit, well, it could be anyone’s game. I’ll lean towards the favourites still, but we’ll all need a spare pair of pants for this one. Australia by 2.
By Mike Cooper (@RuckedOver)
Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images
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Argies by 3 in another superb game