We’ve arrived at the business end of the Super Rugby season, with the first round of knockout games featuring a Kiwi derby and a battle between the South Africans and Australians. Who will progress to the semi-finals? Here are our thoughts.
HIGHLANDERS vs CHIEFS
The Highlanders romped to victory in the last game of the regular season, hammering the Blues and securing a home semi-final in the process. They have been an utter joy to watch this season, in the way they have played rugby with a smile on their faces and never deviated from their open, free-running game plan. Last season they uncovered a gem in the shape of Malakai Fekitoa; if teams have been a bit better prepared for him this year, Waisake Naholo has burst onto the scene from seemingly nowhere to become one of the tournament’s most lethal finishers.
The Chiefs have had an up and down season that culminated in a humiliating home defeat to the Hurricanes last weekend, as they watched their chances of a home qualifier go up in smoke. They undoubtedly have a host of talented backs – the partnership of Sonny Bill Williams and Tim Nanai-Williams in the midfield should be a joy to watch – but since injuries have robbed them of Aaron Cruden and, latterly, Agustine Pulu, they’ve chopped and changed their half-backs too often, robbing them of any consistency.
Key battle: Malakai Fekitoa vs Tim Nanai-Williams. Fekitoa has been reasonably well shackled this season – certainly, there have been none of the 60 metre wonder tries the likes of which we saw against the Sharks last year. He is still a hugely menacing presence in the midfield, however, and will have to be watched closely. Nanai-Williams poses a different kind of threat; he has devilishly quick feet and will look to stand defenders up before leaving them for dead. Both are insatiably dangerous runners and in what will likely be an open game, they could provide a moment of brilliance that makes the difference.
Prediction: The Highlanders have the mental edge as they have beaten the Chiefs both times they met this season, including a 27 point hammering at home as recently as the end of May. That will play on the mind of the Chiefs, but where they could find an advantage is their greater experience of knockout rugby. It will likely be the more entertaining of the two qualifiers, and given the sides’ respective form, it’s difficult to look past the home side. Highlanders by 5.
STORMERS vs BRUMBIES
The age old debate around the conference system and who qualifies for the knockout stages has reared its head again this week, as the Stormers qualified for a home knockout fixture despite finishing with the seventh best points total over the course of the season. Aside from being a damning indictment of the state of South African domestic rugby, it seems cruelly unfair that the Crusaders, who outscored the Stormers, should miss out. The men from Cape Town have scored the joint third fewest tries this year and have generally relied on their tried and tested formula of a powerful pack and reliable kicker, in the form of Demetri Catrakilis.
The Brumbies have a remarkably settled feel to their team, with several tried and tested combinations that have done the business for them in the past few years getting them through another year. That said, they were humiliated at home to the Crusaders last weekend – not the ideal way to enter the end of season jamboree. They’ll face a stiff test in the forwards and it’s unlikely that they will be able to rely on their rolling maul as they have at times this season, against a formidable Stormers outfit. However if they can gain parity up front, they’ve got the strike runners out wide that can do the requisite damage.
Key battle: Demetri Catrakilis vs Christian Leali’ifano. There’s little doubt which of these players is a more rounded fly-half – in terms of an overall game, Leali’ifano is streets ahead of the more one-dimensional Catrakilis. But this is knockout rugby, and the metronomic boot of the South African could come in very handy – especially when up against the much more erratic Australian playmaker, whose one weakness is his inconsistency from the tee. In a game that will undoubtedly be decided by the little things, that could end up being crucial.
Prediction: In this exact game earlier in the season, the Stormers snuck past the Brumbies by a single point. However, there was one crucial difference that day – the home side had their captain available to them; without Duane Vermuelen, the Stormers appear to be a completely different team. He will be sorely missed this weekend and it is eminently possible that his absence will make this a bridge too far for the Capetonians. Brumbies by 6.
How do you see the weekend going?
By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43
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Yes Jamie I tend to agree with you although I would not rule out any surprises. I also think that the format of this competition needs to be looked at.You can’t have teams with more points than some of the qualifying teams being eliminated.
Disagree with the Brumbies prediction. Although Stormers are missing their captain and decided to play an entirely different 15 last week, the Brumbies haven’t given any reason as to why they can go on and win. If the rolling maul doesn’t work, they don’t seem to have any other option. Their backline has been a mess in recent weeks. That said, I think the Stormers may nick this match by 3 or 4 points.
With out Pocock the Brumbies have the same problem as the Stormers. So i think home adv this week end will count for both games.
Highlanders 13over
stormers 12 under