Hurricanes vs Highlanders
The weekend begins with the mouthwatering prospect of the battle between the top two sides in the New Zealand conference. They sit second and third in terms of in-game points scored, and have played some of the best rugby of the season. Should the Highlanders win this game, then they could still feasibly catch the Canes and finish top of the conference – but the nine point gap between them means the home side would have to fail to get a single point from their following game also.
Quite incredibly, this fixture has not been won by more than 7 points since 2006 – worth bearing in mind when picking your margin. In front of a home crowd, the league leaders should confirm their status as the number one seeds for the knockouts. Hurricanes by 3.
Force vs Brumbies
The Force’s season plumbed new depths in the last round as they were hammered at home by the only other team that was having anywhere near as desperate a season as they are. The Reds smashed them by 22 points, and the Brumbies will be looking to do something similar as they chase that all-important spot at the top of the Australian conference. They are equal on points with their rivals at the moment, but with a tricky game against the Crusaders to come on the final weekend, they’ll be looking for maximum points here.
The Force can seemingly only beat the Waratahs this season. The Brumbies are not the Waratahs. Brumbies by 20.
Rebels vs Bulls
This is a tough game to call. The form of both sides has dropped alarming off the radar in recent weeks, with neither side registering a win in their last three games. The Bulls have had a torrid time on their tour, although they will have been pleased to register a bonus point in Canberra last weekend. The Rebels had a similarly difficult time on the road in recent weeks, although they showed great courage to manage a bonus point away at the Sharks with 14 men. In the three times these two sides have met in the past, the Bulls have never failed to reach the 40 point mark.
The Rebels are a better side this year, but after a difficult tour and no bye week to reacclimatise, I can see this one going the way of the visitors. Bulls by 5.
Blues vs Crusaders
It has been a thoroughly odd year for the Crusaders. They have either played brilliantly well, or very poorly – on very few occasions has there been any middle ground. Indeed, in only one of their seven wins have they failed to pick up the four try bonus point, and yet they have only two losing bonus points from the same number of losses. Only two of their wins have come on the road, but fortunately for them the Blues are having a torrid season with only three wins to their name. They’ve won two of their last three home games, but face an uphill battle against a side that has beaten them on three of the last four occasions.
The Crusaders haven’t won in Auckland since 2012, but that should change this weekend as they look to keep their thin play-off hopes alive. Crusaders by 10.
Reds vs Chiefs
The Reds have found something approaching form in recent weeks, winning two of their last three games – although it has to be noted that they have come against the Force and Rebels. But with Quade Cooper back in the saddle last weekend, he and Will Genia inspired them to their best performance for some time. This week is a much greater challenge, however, against a quality Chiefs side wounded from their humiliation at the hands of the Highlanders. The Waikato men know any further losses will jeopardise their play-off place and will be desperate for a win.
The Reds have won the last four instalments of this fixture, although the last of those came in 2013. The Chiefs should prevail, although they may not have it all their way if Genia and Cooper combine as well as they did last week. Chiefs by 7.
Cheetahs vs Waratahs
As if this season hadn’t been bad enough for Cheetahs fans, it was announced this week that star player Willie le Roux would be leaving for the Sharks ahead of next season. They’ve the small matter of taking on the reigning champions this weekend, and the Waratahs will be smarting from a loss to the Lions that very much opened the door to the Brumbies in the fight to be crowned champions of the Australian conference.
The Cheetahs have actually won the last three meetings between these two sides, although that’s a run that will more than likely end this weekend. Waratahs by 9.
Stormers vs Lions
The Stormers finally loosened the shackles in the last round and opened their game up to run in what was only their second try bonus point of the season. This game is essentially a conference decider – if the Stormers win, they will have too big a lead over both the Lions and Bulls to be caught on the final weekend. It is the Lions’ last game of the regular season, so they must win and then hope other results go their way in the last round.
The Lions have been a superb surprise package this season and a genuine joy to watch, but I suspect this might be a bridge too far for them – they have not won in Cape Town for over 10 years. Stormers by 5.
By Jamie Hosie
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The ‘Canes game is actually being played in Napier so while they can probably expect a lot of traveling fans (and support from the Hawkes Bay locals), it’s not strictly a “home” game – could that make the difference?
I wonder if the 5 Lions players with the Boks training group in CT will be “Disadvantaged” when they meet the Stormers on Sat, or will they be “Embolded” to the extent that they help the Lions spring the biggest suprise win of the Super season. I hope it is the latter.
Backing the lions no matter what