England arrive in Paris in a somewhat strange situation. They have won the Championship which, if you had offered it to most fans before the tournament began, would have been considered a success. But with the Grand Slam now dangling tantalising in front of them, and only a misfiring (to be generous) French side in their way, it would almost be a disappointment if they didn’t grab it.
For France, it is merely a case of saving face. They scrapped their way to two wins in the opening two games, but have been utterly uninspiring all tournament and it culminated in their first loss to Scotland for 10 years.
FRANCE
The much hoped for revolution under Guy Noves hasn’t really materialised. It is true that they have attempted to play a more expansive game – they have offloaded more than any other side this tournament – but the skill levels simply haven’t been there, and there are myriad problems that need to be addressed before they can attempt to play in that style.
France’s defence against Scotland was atrocious, entirely lacking in linespeed and pockmarked with dog-legs. Perhaps for this reason, one of Philippe Saint-André’s lieutenants – Bernard le Roux – has been restored to the flank, while Loann Goujon also makes a start in the back-row. In fact, much of what was deemed ‘dead wood’ from the old regime, has crept its way back into the team as the tournament has progressed.
Perhaps surprisingly, the front five that suffered at the hands of the Scottish scrum remains intact. Jefferson Poirot and Rabah Slimani conceded several set piece penalties against Nel and Dickinson, but perhaps the thinking is that the English props are a different stature – less squat – and therefore they might have more joy.
Wesley Fofana, France’s best centre, is again marooned out on the wing, with Maxime Mermoz and Gael Fickou continuing in the midfield. Virimi Vakatawa has consistently shown how dangerous he can be going forwards, but his defensive frailties were exploited by Scotland and that will not have passed Jones and his team by – expect him to be targeted.
Player to watch: François Trinh-Duc
The fly-half was restored to the France team after much clamour for his inclusion last week, but it’s fair to say that he underwhelmed. Like Plisson before him, he directed his backs in a largely lateral manner, and against an English defence that has only conceded two tries when it has been at its full compliment of 15 players, he is going to have to pick his options better.
ENGLAND
Eddie Jones changes two as he chases England’s first Grand Slam since 2003 in his first year in charge – a pretty monumental feat, should he pull it off. Mako Vunipola is rotated into the starting line-up at the expense of Joe Marler, while the same goes for Danny Care and Ben Youngs.
Care will provide zip and buzz around the base of rucks and scrums, although Youngs’ contributions in that sense can be overlooked sometimes. Similarly, Vunipola will offer more in the loose than Marler does, although his scrum battle with Slimani – a more proficient operator than last week would suggest – will be interesting.
Jones has moulded this England team into one that does not need possession or territory to win matches – they had less of both in the wins over Wales and Ireland. They trust their defence and are slowly becoming a more clinical side, crossing the try line when the opportunities present themselves, and coming away with penalties when they do not.
Billy Vunipola was quieter against Wales than he had been for the rest of the tournament, and he will be a marked man once again. But Maro Itoje’s emergence as a properly threatening ball carrier could be seen in his input for Anthony Watson’s try, and brother Mako should also help in this regard.
Player to watch: Dan Cole
WP Nel laid the platform for Scotland’s win over France by pulverising Jefferson Poirot at scrum time. Cole is an excellent scrummager, but a different shape to Nel, so it will be intriguing to see how he fares. He also seriously needs to cut down on his penalty count.
PREDICTION
Under “flatter to deceive” in any list of English idioms, there should simply be a picture of the 2016 French rugby team. Their opening two home wins masked an array of problems that neither Italy nor Ireland could exploit, but both Scotland and, to a lesser extent Wales, have managed to do so.
England under Jones should have no problem doing similar. The Australian is a master tactician, and has primed his side to beat whatever has been in front of them so far. They have not reinvented the wheel, but they are doing enough to get the wins, and that is exactly what England have failed to do consistently in the past few years.
England may not have won on their last two trips to Paris, but that means little because this team has morphed into one that is much more confident. With France flailing, particularly in defence, and England bringing the confidence of a championship win with them, there is no reason to think that the visitors shouldn’t win this one – and win it well. England by 12.
By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43
Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images
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I think this is a fair preview of the game. Confidence has a lot to do with this and one thing Eddie has done is build the confidence of this England team. And hopefully give it a couple of years and you may see it turn into an arrogant swagger (and before everyone goes on about typical English arrogance, well yeah, it’s what it takes to win World cups, really nice guys don’t win I’m afraid and anyway you can mix arrogance with humility, just look at Richie McCaw, supremely arrogant (with good reason) on the field, humble off it.)
The French, however, are looking anything but confident. An unsettled team, with key positions not nailed down and skill levels at an all time low. This, though, is the danger. Can they put together 80 minutes of scintillating rugby? Catch a couple of offloads and just trust themselves? I’m not sure. And the one thing they’ll need to do is get hold of the ball. So if England do as they did first half against Wales, ie keep ball, get in opposition 22 and score points before repeating then the Grand Slam is on. The best bet for the French then is to win toss, receive the kick off and go all Banzai!
You need to be arrogant to win?? Rubbish! The All Blacks are not arrogant. Humility is a very important part of the All Blacks mindset as Dan Carter said in a recent interview about the All Blacks. Cockiness is not allowed. McCaw was never arrogant – confident yes not arrogant. Arrogance and ignorance are 2 sides of the same coin. You don’t know the difference, clearly.
Agreed Jez! Well said
“You need to be arrogant to win”
This shouldn’t even be a controversial statement Tomos.
The key point is geographical!
i.e the quality is entirely permissible and even required upon the field of play (presuming you want to win of course – if u don’t then that’s you’re lookout)
Off the pitch I would agree we do not want to see it. No one likes an arrogant sh…t!
Actions on the pitch speak and a win is a win! How u get there is the players prerogative! It is also a universal given that arrogance comes from confidence and the latter is a pre-requisite for winning.
To conclude:
Arrogance on the pitch not a problem!
If it is expressed by actions/play and body posture also not a problem
If expressed in banter/slating/sledging (choose your sport) also not a problem!
Winners have it and naturally, I repeat, quite naturally it pisses off the losers because they haven’t got it – the winning arrogance nor the win!!
Arrogance is defined as an inflated sense of one’s own superiority so while I agree that I wouldn’t give a stuff if I was called it, I can’t see that you’d ever want to portray it as a virtue and a necessary part of being a top team. Quite the opposite. Confidence is fantastic, arrogance is usually pride coming before a fall and is the sort of attitude that leads to 3 pt kicks being ignored when they’re enough to get the job done.
When looking at the greatest sports people the ones that truly are great often have that bit of arrogance or swagger that sets them apart. For instance Muhammed Ali, Michael Schumacher, AP McCoy and Richie McCaw to name 4. Not in a detrimental way, but they have that aura that they know they are the best and they will make damn sure they stay the best.
In rugby I define the difference between confidence and arrogance as:
Confidence is I think I am going to score this try (or win this ruck, lineout or stop you scoring) and that you are going to have to do something g special to stop me.
Arrogance is knowing I am going to score that try or ruck or tackle and there is nothing you can do to stop me.
Confidence can be stopped, arrogance very very rarely.
Now there is such a thing as over arrogance which I define as being arrogant with no redeeming humility (Stuart Hogg anybody?)
I understand what you are saying but I’m just thinking about dictionary definitions e.g. ” ?unpleasantly ?proud and ?behaving as if you are more ?important than, or ?know more than, other ?people:” or “having or showing an exaggerated opinion of one’s own importance, merit, ability, etc; conceited; overbearingly proud “.
Seems like the best sports people don’t have this because they’re missing the other side of the equation, the lower quality i.e. it’s not an over inflated/exaggerated sense of their superiority because they really are that good. So that’s all I meant – arrogance really isn’t a virtue because it’s usually a trait of mediocre level sports people who can’t quite get over the line but act all billy big boy anyway. Supreme confidence allied with top level ability isn’t arrogance, by the dictionary definition, it’s just a fact of that ability.
All 4 you quote there are probably the 4 greatest ever athletes in their sports – so I wouldn’t say arrogant, just rightly knowing they’re the best on the park.
I think broadly we are talking the same language just from a slightly different angle. Semantics again.
What I suppose I’m saying is I don’t mind someone being arrogant provided a) they back it up with ability and b) they back it up with humility off the field.
Ie, when I played I always knew that if I got the ball 5 yards from the line I WAS going to score, no question, it just happened and 99 times out of 100 (I may slightly exaggerate, time is a wonderful aid to improving ability) I did. That allowed me to play with an amount of swagger and arrogance. I also hope that off the field I showed humility and grace both in victory and defeat.
McCaw was a great exponent of this, qualities you’ve also seen this six nations from in particular Itoje and Billy V.
This is an England squad carrying around a lot of hurt and disappointment form the past. They want this slam badly, and I don´t think they will blow it. If they get a couple of scores early I think they will blow France away and win by 25 points. Regardless of the result I hope it´s dry and that both sides try to play some ambitious rugby. Still have a slight concern about Mako in the tight.
England by 15+. As much as I want France to win I can’t see how a team that has progressively got worse through this tournament will have the skill, sense and desire to overcome a resurgent England with a Slam on offer. It’d be great to see some open play from France, some excitement to turn this into more than a procession but I just cannot see this hapless team, who look knackered before they take the pitch, creating things like the WC 99 match – perhaps even ever again?
I’d want any team to lose the Slam – it’s just a competitive thing, not an anti-English thing. The less Slams everyone else wins the better our record is.
Time to chill out a little about the arrogant thing? Be as arrogant as you want, you’re the winners. I suspect it’s only still thrown around cos it seems to strike a nerve with some. To the victors the spoils and all that. The winners get to write the record as they see fit.
uh oh Guscott has confidently predicted an England win… thats never a good sign
France by 10 in that case
The biggest problem for England is thinking “job done” in that the 6n is already secured. France have nothing to lose and although they have been abject so far,that makes them dangerous.
I hope England don’t blow it but I fear an upset. France to win but it could be by a squeak or ten to fifteen.
Are you for real? France by 10? Yes, France are abject. It does not make them “dangerous”, it makes them abject. That they have nothing to lose does not change that. The only way France could win is if Serge Blanco and Phillipe Sella are teleported back from the 80s. And I am not even English!
I am concerned that France have been awful for the last 4 years, yet all the games we’ve played against them have been tough affairs. Always seem to raise their game.
For some reason my last comment doesn’t seem to be posting
France… wingers… inexperienced… positonal play… high ball… yada yada
Looking back at the most recent attempts, 2011 and 2013, I’m comforted that a) we’re not playing another home nation and b) the team is considerably more experienced. Whereas the home nations teams, as exemplified by Ireland and Wales in the last two matches, never give up, you just know with France that if we have the kind of first half we had against Wales, their heads will drop, their players will give a Gallic shrug and the floodgates will likely open.
Overall under Jones England have started matches really well, in stark contract (to my memories) under Lancaster, if we continue this, England should win.
I do not think this match can be underestimated for England. A good win and Grand slam could completely change the perception and swagger of this team and unlock its potential, just as the 1991 slam did for the 90s team and the 2002 autumn sweep did for the WC winning team.
No excuses really. No major injury concerns or absentees, that certainly plagued England in 2000, 2001 and 2011, and a decent ref that certainly plagued us in 2013 ;)*
*Is there a sign for “tongue in cheek” before I get deluged…
I would say the famous game against NZ at Twickenham England started pretty well and even vs Wales in RWC England started the better too so it’s a little unfair on Bomber to say he coached slow starts?
Well Jez, if there are only two instances of starting well out of 46 games under Bomber, then it would seem to be a fair accusation.
There are more examples, they won a few games and started well in a lot of those.
I do expect England to win this. France are a poor side, and England definitely won’t be underestimating them. I’ve said it when England came second the past few years, and I’ll say it again now. Winning the championship without a Grand Slam isn’t really a big deal.
Grand Slam teams are remembered but others aren’t. How often are the 2011 team spoken about? Never. I think this England side know that for all the good they’ve done over the past couple months, it’ll all be worth nothing if they throw it away tomorrow.
That is so true especially with the gulf in class between the north and south. To stand any chance of beating any of the southern three you really need to be dominanting the 6n first.
only partly agree – depends on how the overall tournament has gone. In 2012, as we had some tough games, the champ win itself was still sweet especially the way it ended. Agree for England in this champ because it would be such a damp squib to lose to a team that had nothing to play for and an awful record. If they were up against fellow title chasers then I suspect not winning the slam but taking the title on the last day would still be right up there as an achievement.
Possibly Wales’ 2013 win on points difference is probably the only real non-Grand Slam winning team that will be remembered well 10 years from now.
“Wesley Fofana, France’s best centre, is again marooned out on the wing”.
I don’t get this. I would have thought a Fofana/Fickou would be the kind of centre partnership that any international coach would like to have at their disposal. Mermoz is OK too I suppose, but Fofana offers a certain je-ne-sais-quoi.
France have looked utterly rudderless (despite Guirado’s best efforts) and void of identity recently. Even if things stick and they broaden the test into a wider game I’d back England to stand up to it and trade blows a la the 90 point epic we were treated to last finale. Offloading is the one area they’ll have an edge on us but it’s hard to predict how successful that will prove to be against the best defense in the tournament. Meanwhile the scrum, lineout, breakdown and aerial contest (especially with an inside centre and a 7s player on the wings) ought to be England’s to lose based on form. Will never take a side with Fickou and Fofana lightly but hoping for England by 15+.
With one eye on the 2019 WC pool draw this autumn, a 15 point win would maximise the ranking points gain from 0.92 for a routine win to 1.38. Either amount would see us climb above Wales (who cannot gain anything from Italy no matter the scoreline) into that crucial 4th place. But the added 50% would give us that extra bit of breathing room of over one full point between us (would still be 3.22 off SA mind) which could be important come the end of the year.
The only way that France could win this would be if the game was played in a parallel universe and England had half their team injured. England have won the 6N; the pressure is off and France are awful. If England cant win in those circumstances, then they never will.
England by 30