Guinness PRO12 Final: Leinster vs Connacht Prediction

Murrayfield plays host to an all Irish final this year between four time winners Leinster, and first time finalists Connacht.

There is little to separate the teams in terms of their results this season; in the two meetings, they are one victory a piece and they finished first and second in the league on the same points total. The Pro12 final is very familiar territory for Leinster, but for Connacht it will be a new experience; one that will either bring out their competitive best, or see them struggle to rise to the occasion.

LEINSTER

Whilst the Champions Cup was a struggle, Leinster have progressed to the PRO12 final pretty smoothly this season. They lost a large number of players to the World Cup, but their results didn’t suffer, demonstrating the strength and depth in the squad. Of course games have been lost along the way, but one couldn’t help feeling that come the end of the season when it mattered most, Leinster would be there.
Leo Cullen makes two enforced changes to the team that overcame Ulster in the semi-final, with club captain Isa Nacewa and Devin Toner missing out.

Rob Kearney returns from an ankle injury at full-back and Ross Molony joins Mick Kearney in the second-row. Their team is packed with experience, boasts a strong pack particularly in the front-row and a mean defence which has leaked 19 fewer tries than Connacht. Jamie Heaslip picks up the captaincy in Nacewa’s absence and will be looking forward to a battle royal with his opposite number, John Muldoon.

CONNACHT

Connacht’s success this season has been based on recycling quick ball, getting over the gain-line and then generating width. With pace to burn, they have scored a hatful of tries and played some of the most entertaining rugby in the league. But it is their defensive line speed which has enabled them to win some of the tighter games against the better teams.

In addition to a mobile and abrasive back-row, they have two centres Bundee Aki and Robbie Henshaw who are big, strong and always in the face of the opposition. The double victory over Glasgow at the Sportsground in recent weeks demonstrated their temperament for the knock-out games and there is no reason to believe that the team won’t perform on the biggest stage.

Pat Lam is able to field the same 23 from their semi-final, which means we will see an exciting back-line with the electric pace of Niyi Adeolokun and Matt Healey on the wings and a very robust second-row pairing of Ultan Dillane and Aly Muldowney. John Muldoon captains the side from No 8 in his 275th appearance for the club.

Head to Head: Ben Te’o vs Bundee Aki

The go-forward that these two inside centres give their respective teams is massive. They are both strong and hugely physical ball carriers, so expect to see them running hard lines, with and without the ball. Whilst Te’o offers quicker feet and the ability to change direction more freely, Aki is an attacking colossus who rarely fails to generate momentum for the Connacht team. Whoever wins this battle will largely come down to which defence manages to slow the ball sufficiently and generate quick enough line speed to close the space. Perhaps Leinster hold a slight edge here.

PREDICTION

Leinster’s experience at the sharp end of domestic and European competitions is significant. Their team is full of players who know what it’s like to take part in finals: Jamie Heaslip, Mike Ross, Rob Kearney, Luke Fitzgerald, Johnny Sexton. Compare that to Connacht who are stepping massively outside their historic comfort zone both as a club and for the majority of their players.

Of course Connacht have enjoyed the underdog tag all season, and once more they will be happy to play this role. It suits their character as a team, and their remarkable story may yet have a fairy-tale ending at Murrayfield.

Connacht will not choke on the big occasion; they have too many quality players and too much fight for that to happen, but Leinster are likely to have the cooler heads on the day. Through Eoin Reddan and Johnny Sexton their overall game management will be better. Their forwards hold a slight edge in the set piece and they will look to frustrate Connacht by taking the pace out of the game at times. Whilst Connacht will enjoy lots of possession, it’s questionable whether they will break down the Leinster defence often enough to cause the upset which most neutral supporters are hoping for. Leinster by 10.

By Keith Mackenzie
Follow Keith on Twitter: @Keith_Mack7